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/srv/reproducible-results/rbuild-debian/r-b-build.NNy29plI/b2/statsmodels_0.14.4+dfsg-1_i386.changes ¶

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python-statsmodels-doc_0.14.4+dfsg-1_all.deb ¶

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data.tar ¶

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1	·~~60ec52~~8~~4d3ae~~d~~da10125697a~~3e662e48·3~~8974840~~·doc·optional·python-statsmodels-doc_0.14.4+dfsg-1_all.deb	1	·3cd10a308b11c8dec688b34f683da694·39595572·doc·optional·python-statsmodels-doc_0.14.4+dfsg-1_all.deb
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3	·d6ed6dd7cac0f83f7d51b3047cd9dca0·1493352·python·optional·python3-statsmodels-lib_0.14.4+dfsg-1_i386.deb	3	·d6ed6dd7cac0f83f7d51b3047cd9dca0·1493352·python·optional·python3-statsmodels-lib_0.14.4+dfsg-1_i386.deb
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1	-rw-r--r--···0········0········0········4·2024-10-05·10:43:25.000000·debian-binary	1	-rw-r--r--···0········0········0········4·2024-10-05·10:43:25.000000·debian-binary
2	-rw-r--r--···0········0········0···333~~148~~·2024-10-05·10:43:25.000000·control.tar.xz	2	-rw-r--r--···0········0········0···333304·2024-10-05·10:43:25.000000·control.tar.xz
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3	-rw-r--r--···0·root·········(0)·root·········(0)··2119~~076~~·2024-10-05·10:43:25.000000·./md5sums	3	-rw-r--r--···0·root·········(0)·root·········(0)··2119999·2024-10-05·10:43:25.000000·./md5sums
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5	-rwxr-xr-x···0·root·········(0)·root·········(0)······408·2024-10-05·10:43:25.000000·./postrm	5	-rwxr-xr-x···0·root·········(0)·root·········(0)······408·2024-10-05·10:43:25.000000·./postrm
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1	Package:·python-statsmodels-doc	1	Package:·python-statsmodels-doc
2	Source:·statsmodels	2	Source:·statsmodels
3	Version:·0.14.4+dfsg-1	3	Version:·0.14.4+dfsg-1
4	Architecture:·all	4	Architecture:·all
5	Maintainer:·Debian·Science·Maintainers·<debian-science-maintainers@lists.alioth.debian.org>	5	Maintainer:·Debian·Science·Maintainers·<debian-science-maintainers@lists.alioth.debian.org>
6	Installed-Size:·15~~534~~1	6	Installed-Size:·156011
7	Depends:·libjs-sphinxdoc·(>=·8.1),·libjs-requirejs,·libjs-mathjax	7	Depends:·libjs-sphinxdoc·(>=·8.1),·libjs-requirejs,·libjs-mathjax
8	Suggests:·python3-statsmodels,·python3-doc,·python-numpy-doc,·python-patsy-doc,·python-pandas-doc,·python-scipy-doc	8	Suggests:·python3-statsmodels,·python3-doc,·python-numpy-doc,·python-patsy-doc,·python-pandas-doc,·python-scipy-doc
9	Breaks:·python-scikits-statsmodels-doc,·python-scikits.statsmodels-doc,·python-statsmodels·(<<·0.9.0-3~)	9	Breaks:·python-scikits-statsmodels-doc,·python-scikits.statsmodels-doc,·python-statsmodels·(<<·0.9.0-3~)
10	Replaces:·python-scikits-statsmodels-doc,·python-scikits.statsmodels-doc,·python-statsmodels·(<<·0.9.0-3~)	10	Replaces:·python-scikits-statsmodels-doc,·python-scikits.statsmodels-doc,·python-statsmodels·(<<·0.9.0-3~)
11	Section:·doc	11	Section:·doc
12	Priority:·optional	12	Priority:·optional
13	Homepage:·https://www.statsmodels.org	13	Homepage:·https://www.statsmodels.org


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482	usr/share/doc/python-statsmodels-doc/html/_images/examples_notebooks_generated_stl_decomposition_13_0.png	482	usr/share/doc/python-statsmodels-doc/html/_images/examples_notebooks_generated_stl_decomposition_13_0.png
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485	usr/share/doc/python-statsmodels-doc/html/_images/examples_notebooks_generated_stl_decomposition_19_1.png	485	usr/share/doc/python-statsmodels-doc/html/_images/examples_notebooks_generated_stl_decomposition_19_1.png
486	usr/share/doc/python-statsmodels-doc/html/_images/examples_notebooks_generated_stl_decomposition_21_0.png	486	usr/share/doc/python-statsmodels-doc/html/_images/examples_notebooks_generated_stl_decomposition_21_0.png
487	usr/share/doc/python-statsmodels-doc/html/_images/examples_notebooks_generated_stl_decomposition_6_0.png	487	usr/share/doc/python-statsmodels-doc/html/_images/examples_notebooks_generated_stl_decomposition_6_0.png
		488	usr/share/doc/python-statsmodels-doc/html/_images/examples_notebooks_generated_tsa_arma_0_18_0.png
		489	usr/share/doc/python-statsmodels-doc/html/_images/examples_notebooks_generated_tsa_arma_0_21_0.png
		490	usr/share/doc/python-statsmodels-doc/html/_images/examples_notebooks_generated_tsa_arma_0_22_0.png
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488	usr/share/doc/python-statsmodels-doc/html/_images/examples_notebooks_generated_tsa_arma_1_11_0.png	494	usr/share/doc/python-statsmodels-doc/html/_images/examples_notebooks_generated_tsa_arma_1_11_0.png
489	usr/share/doc/python-statsmodels-doc/html/_images/examples_notebooks_generated_tsa_dates_12_0.png	495	usr/share/doc/python-statsmodels-doc/html/_images/examples_notebooks_generated_tsa_dates_12_0.png
490	usr/share/doc/python-statsmodels-doc/html/_images/examples_notebooks_generated_tsa_filters_13_0.png	496	usr/share/doc/python-statsmodels-doc/html/_images/examples_notebooks_generated_tsa_filters_13_0.png
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492	usr/share/doc/python-statsmodels-doc/html/_images/examples_notebooks_generated_tsa_filters_26_1.png	498	usr/share/doc/python-statsmodels-doc/html/_images/examples_notebooks_generated_tsa_filters_26_1.png
493	usr/share/doc/python-statsmodels-doc/html/_images/examples_notebooks_generated_tsa_filters_8_0.png	499	usr/share/doc/python-statsmodels-doc/html/_images/examples_notebooks_generated_tsa_filters_8_0.png
494	usr/share/doc/python-statsmodels-doc/html/_images/examples_notebooks_generated_wls_15_1.png	500	usr/share/doc/python-statsmodels-doc/html/_images/examples_notebooks_generated_wls_15_1.png
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7483	usr/share/doc/python-statsmodels-doc/html/examples/notebooks/generated/stl_decomposition.html	7489	usr/share/doc/python-statsmodels-doc/html/examples/notebooks/generated/stl_decomposition.html
7484	usr/share/doc/python-statsmodels-doc/html/examples/notebooks/generated/stl_decomposition.ipynb.gz	7490	usr/share/doc/python-statsmodels-doc/html/examples/notebooks/generated/stl_decomposition.ipynb.gz
7485	usr/share/doc/python-statsmodels-doc/html/examples/notebooks/generated/theta-model.html	7491	usr/share/doc/python-statsmodels-doc/html/examples/notebooks/generated/theta-model.html
7486	usr/share/doc/python-statsmodels-doc/html/examples/notebooks/generated/treatment_effect.html	7492	usr/share/doc/python-statsmodels-doc/html/examples/notebooks/generated/treatment_effect.html
7487	usr/share/doc/python-statsmodels-doc/html/examples/notebooks/generated/treatment_effect.ipynb.gz	7493	usr/share/doc/python-statsmodels-doc/html/examples/notebooks/generated/treatment_effect.ipynb.gz
7488	usr/share/doc/python-statsmodels-doc/html/examples/notebooks/generated/tsa_arma_0.html	7494	usr/share/doc/python-statsmodels-doc/html/examples/notebooks/generated/tsa_arma_0.html
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7489	usr/share/doc/python-statsmodels-doc/html/examples/notebooks/generated/tsa_arma_1.html	7496	usr/share/doc/python-statsmodels-doc/html/examples/notebooks/generated/tsa_arma_1.html
7490	usr/share/doc/python-statsmodels-doc/html/examples/notebooks/generated/tsa_arma_1.ipynb.gz	7497	usr/share/doc/python-statsmodels-doc/html/examples/notebooks/generated/tsa_arma_1.ipynb.gz
7491	usr/share/doc/python-statsmodels-doc/html/examples/notebooks/generated/tsa_dates.html	7498	usr/share/doc/python-statsmodels-doc/html/examples/notebooks/generated/tsa_dates.html
7492	usr/share/doc/python-statsmodels-doc/html/examples/notebooks/generated/tsa_dates.ipynb.gz	7499	usr/share/doc/python-statsmodels-doc/html/examples/notebooks/generated/tsa_dates.ipynb.gz
7493	usr/share/doc/python-statsmodels-doc/html/examples/notebooks/generated/tsa_filters.html	7500	usr/share/doc/python-statsmodels-doc/html/examples/notebooks/generated/tsa_filters.html
7494	usr/share/doc/python-statsmodels-doc/html/examples/notebooks/generated/tsa_filters.ipynb.gz	7501	usr/share/doc/python-statsmodels-doc/html/examples/notebooks/generated/tsa_filters.ipynb.gz
7495	usr/share/doc/python-statsmodels-doc/html/examples/notebooks/generated/variance_components.html	7502	usr/share/doc/python-statsmodels-doc/html/examples/notebooks/generated/variance_components.html


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32	············"source":·[	32	············"source":·[
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55	············"outputs":·[],	55	············"outputs":·[],
56	············"source":·[	56	············"source":·[
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65	············"execution_count":·3,	65	············"execution_count":·3,
66	············"metadata":·{	66	············"metadata":·{
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78	················{	78	················{


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120	</div>	120	</div>
121	</div>	121	</div>
122	<div·class="nboutput·docutils·container">	122	<div·class="nboutput·docutils·container">
123	<div·class="prompt·empty·docutils·container">	123	<div·class="prompt·empty·docutils·container">
124	</div>	124	</div>
125	<div·class="output_area·stderr·docutils·container">	125	<div·class="output_area·stderr·docutils·container">
126	<div·class="highlight"><pre>	126	<div·class="highlight"><pre>
127	/tmp/ipykernel_~~5447~~9/2751177292.py:28:·FutureWarning:·The·'delim_whitespace'·keyword·in·pd.read_csv·is·deprecated·and·will·be·removed·in·a·future·version.·Use·``sep='\s+'``·instead	127	/tmp/ipykernel_100398/2751177292.py:28:·FutureWarning:·The·'delim_whitespace'·keyword·in·pd.read_csv·is·deprecated·and·will·be·removed·in·a·future·version.·Use·``sep='\s+'``·instead
128	··data·=·pd.read_csv(StringIO(data),·delim_whitespace=True).astype(float)	128	··data·=·pd.read_csv(StringIO(data),·delim_whitespace=True).astype(float)
129	</pre></div></div>	129	</pre></div></div>
130	</div>	130	</div>
131	<div·class="nboutput·nblast·docutils·container">	131	<div·class="nboutput·nblast·docutils·container">
132	<div·class="prompt·highlight-none·notranslate"><div·class="highlight"><pre><span></span>[2]:	132	<div·class="prompt·highlight-none·notranslate"><div·class="highlight"><pre><span></span>[2]:
133	</pre></div>	133	</pre></div>
134	</div>	134	</div>


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56	except·ImportError:	56	except·ImportError:
57	····from·io·import·StringIO	57	····from·io·import·StringIO
58	data·=·pd.read_csv(StringIO(data),·delim_whitespace=True).astype(float)	58	data·=·pd.read_csv(StringIO(data),·delim_whitespace=True).astype(float)

59	#·Note:·for·the·results·we·compare·with·the·paper·here,·they·drop·the·first	59	#·Note:·for·the·results·we·compare·with·the·paper·here,·they·drop·the·first
60	four·points	60	four·points
61	data.head()	61	data.head()
62	/tmp/ipykernel_~~5447~~9/2751177292.py:28:·FutureWarning:·The·'delim_whitespace'	62	/tmp/ipykernel_100398/2751177292.py:28:·FutureWarning:·The·'delim_whitespace'
63	keyword·in·pd.read_csv·is·deprecated·and·will·be·removed·in·a·future·version.	63	keyword·in·pd.read_csv·is·deprecated·and·will·be·removed·in·a·future·version.
64	Use·``sep='\s+'``·instead	64	Use·``sep='\s+'``·instead
65	··data·=·pd.read_csv(StringIO(data),·delim_whitespace=True).astype(float)	65	··data·=·pd.read_csv(StringIO(data),·delim_whitespace=True).astype(float)
66	[2]:	66	[2]:
67	·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·	67	·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·
68	\|_\x8·_\x8\|_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8x\x8x_\x8\|_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8y\x8y_\x8\|_\x8y\x8y_\x8_\x8__\x8e\x8e_\x8r\x8r_\x8r\x8r\|	68	\|_\x8·_\x8\|_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8x\x8x_\x8\|_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8y\x8y_\x8\|_\x8y\x8y_\x8_\x8__\x8e\x8e_\x8r\x8r_\x8r\x8r\|
69	\|_\x80\x80_\x8\|_\x82_\x80_\x81_\x8._\x80_\x8\|_\x85_\x89_\x82_\x8._\x80_\x8\|_\x86_\x81_\x8._\x80_\x8·\|	69	\|_\x80\x80_\x8\|_\x82_\x80_\x81_\x8._\x80_\x8\|_\x85_\x89_\x82_\x8._\x80_\x8\|_\x86_\x81_\x8._\x80_\x8·\|


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30	················},	30	················},
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33	················}	33	················}
34	············},	34	············},
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62	············]	62	············]
63	········},	63	········},
64	········{	64	········{
65	············"cell_type":·"code",	65	············"cell_type":·"code",
66	············"execution_count":·2,	66	············"execution_count":·2,
67	············"metadata":·{	67	············"metadata":·{
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71	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2025-04-15T06:03:53.~~969824~~Z",	71	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2026-05-18T13:29:14.022463Z",
72	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2025-04-15T06:03:53.~~9689~~34Z"	72	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2026-05-18T13:29:14.006435Z"
73	················},	73	················},
74	················"jupyter":·{	74	················"jupyter":·{
75	····················"outputs_hidden":·false	75	····················"outputs_hidden":·false
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53	················"import·matplotlib.pyplot·as·plt\n",	53	················"import·matplotlib.pyplot·as·plt\n",
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154	················"dta·=·sm.datasets.fair.load_pandas().data"	154	················"dta·=·sm.datasets.fair.load_pandas().data"
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24	············"source":·[	24	············"source":·[
25	················"import·numpy·as·np\n",	25	················"import·numpy·as·np\n",
26	················"from·scipy.stats.distributions·import·norm\n",	26	················"from·scipy.stats.distributions·import·norm\n",
27	················"from·statsmodels.base.distributed_estimation·import·DistributedModel\n",	27	················"from·statsmodels.base.distributed_estimation·import·DistributedModel\n",
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76	················"X·=·np.random.normal(size=(1000,·25))\n",	76	················"X·=·np.random.normal(size=(1000,·25))\n",
77	················"beta·=·np.random.normal(size=25)\n",	77	················"beta·=·np.random.normal(size=25)\n",
78	················"beta·*=·np.random.randint(0,·2,·size=25)\n",	78	················"beta·*=·np.random.randint(0,·2,·size=25)\n",
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		96	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2026-05-18T13:29:52.403370Z",
97	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2025-04-15T06:04:16.~~376008~~Z",	97	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2026-05-18T13:29:53.127567Z",
98	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2025-04-15T06:04:16.~~37507~~3Z"	98	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2026-05-18T13:29:53.126423Z"
99	················}	99	················}
100	············},	100	············},
101	············"outputs":·[],	101	············"outputs":·[],
102	············"source":·[	102	············"source":·[
103	················"debiased_OLS_mod·=·DistributedModel(m)\n",	103	················"debiased_OLS_mod·=·DistributedModel(m)\n",
104	················"debiased_OLS_fit·=·debiased_OLS_mod.fit(\n",	104	················"debiased_OLS_fit·=·debiased_OLS_mod.fit(\n",
105	················"····zip(_endog_gen(y,·m),·_exog_gen(X,·m)),·fit_kwds={\"alpha\":·0.2}\n",	105	················"····zip(_endog_gen(y,·m),·_exog_gen(X,·m)),·fit_kwds={\"alpha\":·0.2}\n",
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114	············]	114	············]
115	········},	115	········},
116	········{	116	········{
117	············"cell_type":·"code",	117	············"cell_type":·"code",
118	············"execution_count":·4,	118	············"execution_count":·4,
119	············"metadata":·{	119	············"metadata":·{
120	················"execution":·{	120	················"execution":·{
121	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2025-04-15T06:04:16.~~381192~~Z",	121	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2026-05-18T13:29:53.135664Z",
122	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2025-04-15T06:04:16.~~380805~~Z",	122	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2026-05-18T13:29:53.135227Z",
123	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2025-04-15T06:04:17.~~126~~467Z",	123	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2026-05-18T13:29:54.015476Z",
124	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2025-04-15T06:04:17.125578Z"	124	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2026-05-18T13:29:54.014455Z"
125	················}	125	················}
126	············},	126	············},
127	············"outputs":·[],	127	············"outputs":·[],
128	············"source":·[	128	············"source":·[
129	················"from·statsmodels.genmod.generalized_linear_model·import·GLM\n",	129	················"from·statsmodels.genmod.generalized_linear_model·import·GLM\n",
130	················"from·statsmodels.genmod.families·import·Gaussian\n",	130	················"from·statsmodels.genmod.families·import·Gaussian\n",
131	················"\n",	131	················"\n",
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145	············]	145	············]
146	········},	146	········},
147	········{	147	········{
148	············"cell_type":·"code",	148	············"cell_type":·"code",
149	············"execution_count":·5,	149	············"execution_count":·5,
150	············"metadata":·{	150	············"metadata":·{
151	················"execution":·{	151	················"execution":·{
152	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2025-04-15T06:04:17.~~138529~~Z",	152	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2026-05-18T13:29:54.023063Z",
153	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2025-04-15T06:04:17.~~138151~~Z",	153	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2026-05-18T13:29:54.022622Z",
154	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2025-04-15T06:04:17.399~~873~~Z",	154	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2026-05-18T13:29:54.139460Z",
155	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2025-04-15T06:04:17.~~391165~~Z"	155	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2026-05-18T13:29:54.138428Z"
156	················}	156	················}
157	············},	157	············},
158	············"outputs":·[],	158	············"outputs":·[],
159	············"source":·[	159	············"source":·[
160	················"from·statsmodels.base.distributed_estimation·import·_est_regularized_naive,·_join_naive\n",	160	················"from·statsmodels.base.distributed_estimation·import·_est_regularized_naive,·_join_naive\n",
161	················"\n",	161	················"\n",
162	················"\n",	162	················"\n",
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176	············]	176	············]
177	········},	177	········},
178	········{	178	········{
179	············"cell_type":·"code",	179	············"cell_type":·"code",
180	············"execution_count":·6,	180	············"execution_count":·6,
181	············"metadata":·{	181	············"metadata":·{
182	················"execution":·{	182	················"execution":·{
183	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2025-04-15T06:04:17.404599Z",	183	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2026-05-18T13:29:54.143419Z",
184	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2025-04-15T06:04:17.404190Z",
185	····················"iopub.status.~~idle~~":·"2025-04-15T06:04:17.437~~836~~Z",	184	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2026-05-18T13:29:54.143027Z",
		185	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2026-05-18T13:29:54.197102Z",
186	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2025-04-15T06:04:17.~~431084~~Z"	186	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2026-05-18T13:29:54.196161Z"
187	················}	187	················}
188	············},	188	············},
189	············"outputs":·[],	189	············"outputs":·[],
190	············"source":·[	190	············"source":·[
191	················"from·statsmodels.base.distributed_estimation·import·(\n",	191	················"from·statsmodels.base.distributed_estimation·import·(\n",
192	················"····_est_unregularized_naive,\n",	192	················"····_est_unregularized_naive,\n",
193	················"····DistributedResults,\n",	193	················"····DistributedResults,\n",


Offset 21, 18 lines modified		Offset 21, 18 lines modified
21	············]	21	············]
22	········},	22	········},
23	········{	23	········{
24	············"cell_type":·"code",	24	············"cell_type":·"code",
25	············"execution_count":·1,	25	············"execution_count":·1,
26	············"metadata":·{	26	············"metadata":·{
27	················"execution":·{	27	················"execution":·{
28	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2025-04-15T06:04:03.62~~0330~~Z",	28	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2026-05-18T13:29:35.324183Z",
		29	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2026-05-18T13:29:35.323794Z",
29	····················"iopub.status.~~busy~~":·"2025-04-15T06:04:03.619~~969~~Z",	30	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2026-05-18T13:29:39.219720Z",
30	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2025-04-15T06:04:07.858591Z",
31	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2025-04-15T06:04:07.~~857~~446Z"	31	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2026-05-18T13:29:39.206438Z"
32	················}	32	················}
33	············},	33	············},
34	············"outputs":·[],	34	············"outputs":·[],
35	············"source":·[	35	············"source":·[
36	················"import·numpy·as·np\n",	36	················"import·numpy·as·np\n",
37	················"import·matplotlib.pyplot·as·plt\n",	37	················"import·matplotlib.pyplot·as·plt\n",
38	················"import·pandas·as·pd\n",	38	················"import·pandas·as·pd\n",
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43	············]	43	············]
44	········},	44	········},
45	········{	45	········{
46	············"cell_type":·"code",	46	············"cell_type":·"code",
47	············"execution_count":·2,	47	············"execution_count":·2,
48	············"metadata":·{	48	············"metadata":·{
49	················"execution":·{	49	················"execution":·{
50	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2025-04-15T06:04:07.~~882~~891Z",	50	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2026-05-18T13:29:39.227882Z",
51	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2025-04-15T06:04:07.~~882~~313Z",	51	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2026-05-18T13:29:39.227317Z",
52	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2025-04-15T06:04:07.~~887~~454Z",	52	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2026-05-18T13:29:39.258447Z",
53	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2025-04-15T06:04:07.886~~439~~Z"	53	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2026-05-18T13:29:39.246522Z"
54	················}	54	················}
55	············},	55	············},
56	············"outputs":·[],	56	············"outputs":·[],
57	············"source":·[	57	············"source":·[
58	················"plt.rcParams[\"figure.figsize\"]·=·(12,·8)"	58	················"plt.rcParams[\"figure.figsize\"]·=·(12,·8)"
59	············]	59	············]
60	········},	60	········},
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82	············]	82	············]
83	········},	83	········},
84	········{	84	········{
85	············"cell_type":·"code",	85	············"cell_type":·"code",
86	············"execution_count":·3,	86	············"execution_count":·3,
87	············"metadata":·{	87	············"metadata":·{
88	················"execution":·{	88	················"execution":·{
89	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2025-04-15T06:04:07.894469Z",
90	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2025-04-15T06:04:07.894071Z",
91	····················"iopub.~~stat~~us.i~~dle~~":·"2025-04-15T06:04:08.~~945470~~Z",	89	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2026-05-18T13:29:39.266002Z",
		90	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2026-05-18T13:29:39.265559Z",
		91	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2026-05-18T13:29:40.223630Z",
92	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2025-04-15T06:04:08.~~933~~439Z"	92	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2026-05-18T13:29:40.222439Z"
93	················}	93	················}
94	············},	94	············},
95	············"outputs":·[	95	············"outputs":·[
96	················{	96	················{
97	····················"data":·{	97	····················"data":·{
98	························"text/plain":·[	98	························"text/plain":·[
99	····························"Text(0,·0.5,·'Annual·oil·production·in·Saudi·Arabia·(Mt)')"	99	····························"Text(0,·0.5,·'Annual·oil·production·in·Saudi·Arabia·(Mt)')"
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180	············]	180	············]
181	········},	181	········},
182	········{	182	········{
183	············"cell_type":·"code",	183	············"cell_type":·"code",
184	············"execution_count":·4,	184	············"execution_count":·4,
185	············"metadata":·{	185	············"metadata":·{
186	················"execution":·{	186	················"execution":·{
187	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2025-04-15T06:04:08.962706Z",
188	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2025-04-15T06:04:08.962287Z",
189	····················"iopub.~~stat~~us.i~~dle~~":·"2025-04-15T06:04:09.~~71474~~4Z",	187	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2026-05-18T13:29:40.231694Z",
		188	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2026-05-18T13:29:40.231265Z",
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190	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2025-04-15T06:04:09.701416Z"	190	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2026-05-18T13:29:40.802451Z"
191	················}	191	················}
192	············},	192	············},
193	············"outputs":·[	193	············"outputs":·[
194	················{	194	················{
195	····················"name":·"stderr",	195	····················"name":·"stderr",
196	····················"output_type":·"stream",	196	····················"output_type":·"stream",
197	····················"text":·[	197	····················"text":·[
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243	············]	243	············]
244	········},	244	········},
245	········{	245	········{
246	············"cell_type":·"code",	246	············"cell_type":·"code",
247	············"execution_count":·5,	247	············"execution_count":·5,
248	············"metadata":·{	248	············"metadata":·{
249	················"execution":·{	249	················"execution":·{
250	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2025-04-15T06:04:09.~~730~~707Z",	250	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2026-05-18T13:29:40.819744Z",
251	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2025-04-15T06:04:09.~~730~~332Z",	251	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2026-05-18T13:29:40.819322Z",
252	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2025-04-15T06:04:10.~~797440~~Z",	252	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2026-05-18T13:29:42.372563Z",
253	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2025-04-15T06:04:10.~~785~~421Z"	253	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2026-05-18T13:29:42.370486Z"
254	················}	254	················}
255	············},	255	············},
256	············"outputs":·[	256	············"outputs":·[
257	················{	257	················{
258	····················"name":·"stderr",	258	····················"name":·"stderr",
259	····················"output_type":·"stream",	259	····················"output_type":·"stream",
260	····················"text":·[	260	····················"text":·[
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307	············]	307	············]
308	········},	308	········},
309	········{	309	········{
310	············"cell_type":·"code",	310	············"cell_type":·"code",
311	············"execution_count":·6,	311	············"execution_count":·6,
312	············"metadata":·{	312	············"metadata":·{
313	················"execution":·{	313	················"execution":·{
314	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2025-04-15T06:04:10.810592Z",
315	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2025-04-15T06:04:10.810177Z",
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317	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2025-04-15T06:04:10.~~929~~422Z"	317	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2026-05-18T13:29:42.498440Z"
318	················}	318	················}
319	············},	319	············},
320	············"outputs":·[	320	············"outputs":·[
321	················{	321	················{
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324	····················"text":·[	324	····················"text":·[
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355	········{	355	········{
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189	</div>	189	</div>
190	</div>	190	</div>
191	<div·class="nboutput·nblast·docutils·container">	191	<div·class="nboutput·nblast·docutils·container">
192	<div·class="prompt·empty·docutils·container">	192	<div·class="prompt·empty·docutils·container">
193	</div>	193	</div>
194	<div·class="output_area·stderr·docutils·container">	194	<div·class="output_area·stderr·docutils·container">
195	<div·class="highlight"><pre>	195	<div·class="highlight"><pre>
196	/tmp/ipykernel_~~667~~96/3508103541.py:24:·FutureWarning:·'Y'·is·deprecated·and·will·be·removed·in·a·future·version,·please·use·'YE'·instead.	196	/tmp/ipykernel_104981/3508103541.py:24:·FutureWarning:·'Y'·is·deprecated·and·will·be·removed·in·a·future·version,·please·use·'YE'·instead.
197	··index·=·pd.date_range(start="1996",·end="2008",·freq="Y")	197	··index·=·pd.date_range(start="1996",·end="2008",·freq="Y")
198	/tmp/ipykernel_~~667~~96/3508103541.py:44:·FutureWarning:·'Y'·is·deprecated·and·will·be·removed·in·a·future·version,·please·use·'YE'·instead.	198	/tmp/ipykernel_104981/3508103541.py:44:·FutureWarning:·'Y'·is·deprecated·and·will·be·removed·in·a·future·version,·please·use·'YE'·instead.
199	··index·=·pd.date_range(start="1990",·end="2005",·freq="Y")	199	··index·=·pd.date_range(start="1990",·end="2005",·freq="Y")
200	/tmp/ipykernel_~~667~~96/3508103541.py:80:·FutureWarning:·'Y'·is·deprecated·and·will·be·removed·in·a·future·version,·please·use·'YE'·instead.	200	/tmp/ipykernel_104981/3508103541.py:80:·FutureWarning:·'Y'·is·deprecated·and·will·be·removed·in·a·future·version,·please·use·'YE'·instead.
201	··index·=·pd.date_range(start="1970",·end="2001",·freq="Y")	201	··index·=·pd.date_range(start="1970",·end="2001",·freq="Y")
202	/tmp/ipykernel_~~667~~96/3508103541.py:84:·FutureWarning:·'Y'·is·deprecated·and·will·be·removed·in·a·future·version,·please·use·'YE'·instead.	202	/tmp/ipykernel_104981/3508103541.py:84:·FutureWarning:·'Y'·is·deprecated·and·will·be·removed·in·a·future·version,·please·use·'YE'·instead.
203	··index·=·pd.date_range(start="2001",·end="2008",·freq="Y")	203	··index·=·pd.date_range(start="2001",·end="2008",·freq="Y")
204	</pre></div></div>	204	</pre></div></div>
205	</div>	205	</div>
206	</section>	206	</section>
207	<section·id="Simple-Exponential-Smoothing">	207	<section·id="Simple-Exponential-Smoothing">
208	<h2>Simple·Exponential·Smoothing<a·class="headerlink"·href="#Simple-Exponential-Smoothing"·title="Link·to·this·heading">¶</a></h2>	208	<h2>Simple·Exponential·Smoothing<a·class="headerlink"·href="#Simple-Exponential-Smoothing"·title="Link·to·this·heading">¶</a></h2>
209	<p>Lets·use·Simple·Exponential·Smoothing·to·forecast·the·below·oil·data.</p>	209	<p>Lets·use·Simple·Exponential·Smoothing·to·forecast·the·below·oil·data.</p>


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79	The·estimated·covariance·parameters·should·be·similar·to·groups_var,	79	The·estimated·covariance·parameters·should·be·similar·to·groups_var,
80	level1_var,·etc.·as·defined·above.	80	level1_var,·etc.·as·defined·above.
81	[13]:	81	[13]:
82	r.cov_struct.summary()	82	r.cov_struct.summary()
83	[13]:	83	[13]:
84	·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·	84	·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·
85	\|_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8\|_\x8V\x8V_\x8a\x8a_\x8r\x8r_\x8i\x8i_\x8a\x8a_\x8n\x8n_\x8c\x8c_\x8e\x8e\|	85	\|_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8·_\x8\|_\x8V\x8V_\x8a\x8a_\x8r\x8r_\x8i\x8i_\x8a\x8a_\x8n\x8n_\x8c\x8c_\x8e\x8e\|
86	\|_\x8g\x8g_\x8r\x8r_\x8o\x8o_\x8u\x8u_\x8p\x8p_\x8s\x8s_\x8_\x8__\x8i\x8i_\x8x\x8x_\x8\|_\x81_\x8._\x80_.4_.9_.9_.2_.6\|	86	\|_\x8g\x8g_\x8r\x8r_\x8o\x8o_\x8u\x8u_\x8p\x8p_\x8s\x8s_\x8_\x8__\x8i\x8i_\x8x\x8x_\x8\|_\x81_\x8._\x81_.1_.6_.5_.6_.3\|
87	\|_\x8l\x8l_\x8e\x8e_\x8v\x8v_\x8e\x8e_\x8l\x8l_\x81\x81_\x8_\x8__\x8i\x8i_\x8x\x8x_\x8\|_\x81_.._.9_.5_.1_.3_.5_.4\|	87	\|_\x8l\x8l_\x8e\x8e_\x8v\x8v_\x8e\x8e_\x8l\x8l_\x81\x81_\x8_\x8__\x8i\x8i_\x8x\x8x_\x8\|_\x82_.._.0_.1_.1_.0_.4_.3\|
88	\|_\x8l\x8l_\x8e\x8e_\x8v\x8v_\x8e\x8e_\x8l\x8l_\x82\x82_\x8_\x8__\x8i\x8i_\x8x\x8x_\x8\|_\x83_\x8._\x80_\x80_.6_.4_.1_.8\|	88	\|_\x8l\x8l_\x8e\x8e_\x8v\x8v_\x8e\x8e_\x8l\x8l_\x82\x82_\x8_\x8__\x8i\x8i_\x8x\x8x_\x8\|_\x83_\x8._\x80_\x88_.2_.0_.8_.3\|
89	\|_\x8R\x8R_\x8e\x8e_\x8s\x8s_\x8i\x8i_\x8d\x8d_\x8u\x8u_\x8a\x8a_\x8l\x8l_\x8·_\x8\|_\x84_.._.0_.2_.9_.6_.7_.4\|	89	\|_\x8R\x8R_\x8e\x8e_\x8s\x8s_\x8i\x8i_\x8d\x8d_\x8u\x8u_\x8a\x8a_\x8l\x8l_\x8·_\x8\|_\x83_.._.9_.8_.5_.9_.8_.0\|
90	_\x8[_\x8L_\x8o_\x8g_\x8o_\x8·_\x8o_\x8f_\x8·_\x8s_\x8t_\x8a_\x8t_\x8s_\x8m_\x8o_\x8d_\x8e_\x8l_\x8s_\x8·_\x80_\x8._\x81_\x84_\x8._\x84_\x8+_\x8d_\x8f_\x8s_\x8g_\x8]	90	_\x8[_\x8L_\x8o_\x8g_\x8o_\x8·_\x8o_\x8f_\x8·_\x8s_\x8t_\x8a_\x8t_\x8s_\x8m_\x8o_\x8d_\x8e_\x8l_\x8s_\x8·_\x80_\x8._\x81_\x84_\x8._\x84_\x8+_\x8d_\x8f_\x8s_\x8g_\x8]
91	\x8\x8\x8\x8·_\x8T\x8T_\x8a\x8a_\x8b\x8b_\x8l\x8l_\x8e\x8e_\x8·_\x8o\x8o_\x8f\x8f_\x8·_\x8C\x8C_\x8o\x8o_\x8n\x8n_\x8t\x8t_\x8e\x8e_\x8n\x8n_\x8t\x8t_\x8s\x8s·\x8\x8\x8\x8	91	\x8\x8\x8\x8·_\x8T\x8T_\x8a\x8a_\x8b\x8b_\x8l\x8l_\x8e\x8e_\x8·_\x8o\x8o_\x8f\x8f_\x8·_\x8C\x8C_\x8o\x8o_\x8n\x8n_\x8t\x8t_\x8e\x8e_\x8n\x8n_\x8t\x8t_\x8s\x8s·\x8\x8\x8\x8
92	····*·_\x8I_\x8n_\x8s_\x8t_\x8a_\x8l_\x8l_\x8i_\x8n_\x8g_\x8·_\x8s_\x8t_\x8a_\x8t_\x8s_\x8m_\x8o_\x8d_\x8e_\x8l_\x8s	92	····*·_\x8I_\x8n_\x8s_\x8t_\x8a_\x8l_\x8l_\x8i_\x8n_\x8g_\x8·_\x8s_\x8t_\x8a_\x8t_\x8s_\x8m_\x8o_\x8d_\x8e_\x8l_\x8s
93	····*·_\x8G_\x8e_\x8t_\x8t_\x8i_\x8n_\x8g_\x8·_\x8s_\x8t_\x8a_\x8r_\x8t_\x8e_\x8d	93	····*·_\x8G_\x8e_\x8t_\x8t_\x8i_\x8n_\x8g_\x8·_\x8s_\x8t_\x8a_\x8r_\x8t_\x8e_\x8d
94	····*·_\x8U_\x8s_\x8e_\x8r_\x8·_\x8G_\x8u_\x8i_\x8d_\x8e	94	····*·_\x8U_\x8s_\x8e_\x8r_\x8·_\x8G_\x8u_\x8i_\x8d_\x8e
95	····*·_\x8E_\x8x_\x8a_\x8m_\x8p_\x8l_\x8e_\x8s	95	····*·_\x8E_\x8x_\x8a_\x8m_\x8p_\x8l_\x8e_\x8s
96	····*·_\x8A_\x8P_\x8I_\x8·_\x8R_\x8e_\x8f_\x8e_\x8r_\x8e_\x8n_\x8c_\x8e	96	····*·_\x8A_\x8P_\x8I_\x8·_\x8R_\x8e_\x8f_\x8e_\x8r_\x8e_\x8n_\x8c_\x8e


Offset 126, 24 lines modified		Offset 126, 24 lines modified
126	····59.7668,	126	····59.7668,
127	····35.1919,	127	····35.1919,
128	····44.3197,	128	····44.3197,
129	····47.9137,	129	····47.9137,
130	]	130	]
131	index·=·pd.date_range(start="2005",·end="2010-Q4",·freq="QS-OCT")	131	index·=·pd.date_range(start="2005",·end="2010-Q4",·freq="QS-OCT")
132	aust·=·pd.Series(data,·index)	132	aust·=·pd.Series(data,·index)
133	/tmp/ipykernel_~~667~~96/3508103541.py:24:·FutureWarning:·'Y'·is·deprecated·and	133	/tmp/ipykernel_104981/3508103541.py:24:·FutureWarning:·'Y'·is·deprecated·and
134	will·be·removed·in·a·future·version,·please·use·'YE'·instead.	134	will·be·removed·in·a·future·version,·please·use·'YE'·instead.
135	··index·=·pd.date_range(start="1996",·end="2008",·freq="Y")	135	··index·=·pd.date_range(start="1996",·end="2008",·freq="Y")
136	/tmp/ipykernel_~~667~~96/3508103541.py:44:·FutureWarning:·'Y'·is·deprecated·and	136	/tmp/ipykernel_104981/3508103541.py:44:·FutureWarning:·'Y'·is·deprecated·and
137	will·be·removed·in·a·future·version,·please·use·'YE'·instead.	137	will·be·removed·in·a·future·version,·please·use·'YE'·instead.
138	··index·=·pd.date_range(start="1990",·end="2005",·freq="Y")	138	··index·=·pd.date_range(start="1990",·end="2005",·freq="Y")
139	/tmp/ipykernel_~~667~~96/3508103541.py:80:·FutureWarning:·'Y'·is·deprecated·and	139	/tmp/ipykernel_104981/3508103541.py:80:·FutureWarning:·'Y'·is·deprecated·and
140	will·be·removed·in·a·future·version,·please·use·'YE'·instead.	140	will·be·removed·in·a·future·version,·please·use·'YE'·instead.
141	··index·=·pd.date_range(start="1970",·end="2001",·freq="Y")	141	··index·=·pd.date_range(start="1970",·end="2001",·freq="Y")
142	/tmp/ipykernel_~~667~~96/3508103541.py:84:·FutureWarning:·'Y'·is·deprecated·and	142	/tmp/ipykernel_104981/3508103541.py:84:·FutureWarning:·'Y'·is·deprecated·and
143	will·be·removed·in·a·future·version,·please·use·'YE'·instead.	143	will·be·removed·in·a·future·version,·please·use·'YE'·instead.
144	··index·=·pd.date_range(start="2001",·end="2008",·freq="Y")	144	··index·=·pd.date_range(start="2001",·end="2008",·freq="Y")
145	\x8\x8\x8\x8\x8·S\x8Si\x8im\x8mp\x8pl\x8le\x8e·E\x8Ex\x8xp\x8po\x8on\x8ne\x8en\x8nt\x8ti\x8ia\x8al\x8l·S\x8Sm\x8mo\x8oo\x8ot\x8th\x8hi\x8in\x8ng\x8g_\x8?\x8¶·\x8\x8\x8\x8\x8	145	\x8\x8\x8\x8\x8·S\x8Si\x8im\x8mp\x8pl\x8le\x8e·E\x8Ex\x8xp\x8po\x8on\x8ne\x8en\x8nt\x8ti\x8ia\x8al\x8l·S\x8Sm\x8mo\x8oo\x8ot\x8th\x8hi\x8in\x8ng\x8g_\x8?\x8¶·\x8\x8\x8\x8\x8
146	Lets·use·Simple·Exponential·Smoothing·to·forecast·the·below·oil·data.	146	Lets·use·Simple·Exponential·Smoothing·to·forecast·the·below·oil·data.
147	[2]:	147	[2]:
148	ax·=·oildata.plot()	148	ax·=·oildata.plot()
149	ax.set_xlabel("Year")	149	ax.set_xlabel("Year")


Offset 230, 27 lines modified		Offset 230, 27 lines modified
230	······<th></th>	230	······<th></th>
231	······<th>Variance</th>	231	······<th>Variance</th>
232	····</tr>	232	····</tr>
233	··</thead>	233	··</thead>
234	··<tbody>	234	··<tbody>
235	····<tr>	235	····<tr>
236	······<th>groups_ix</th>	236	······<th>groups_ix</th>
237	······<td>1.~~049926~~</td>	237	······<td>1.116563</td>
238	····</tr>	238	····</tr>
239	····<tr>	239	····<tr>
240	······<th>level1_ix</th>	240	······<th>level1_ix</th>
241	······<td>1.951~~354~~</td>	241	······<td>2.011043</td>
242	····</tr>	242	····</tr>
243	····<tr>	243	····<tr>
244	······<th>level2_ix</th>	244	······<th>level2_ix</th>
245	······<td>3.0~~06418~~</td>	245	······<td>3.082083</td>
246	····</tr>	246	····</tr>
247	····<tr>	247	····<tr>
248	······<th>Residual</th>	248	······<th>Residual</th>
249	······<td>4.~~029674~~</td>	249	······<td>3.985980</td>
250	····</tr>	250	····</tr>
251	··</tbody>	251	··</tbody>
252	</table>	252	</table>
253	</div></div>	253	</div></div>
254	</div>	254	</div>
255	</section>	255	</section>


Offset 12, 18 lines modified		Offset 12, 18 lines modified
12	············]	12	············]
13	········},	13	········},
14	········{	14	········{
15	············"cell_type":·"code",	15	············"cell_type":·"code",
16	············"execution_count":·1,	16	············"execution_count":·1,
17	············"metadata":·{	17	············"metadata":·{
18	················"execution":·{	18	················"execution":·{
19	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2025-04-15T06:04:11.610544Z",	19	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2026-05-18T13:29:18.250664Z",
20	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2025-04-15T06:04:11.~~610~~138Z",	20	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2026-05-18T13:29:18.246194Z",
21	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2025-04-15T06:04:14.6~~53844~~Z",	21	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2026-05-18T13:29:23.611483Z",
22	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2025-04-15T06:04:14.6~~52712~~Z"	22	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2026-05-18T13:29:23.610435Z"
23	················}	23	················}
24	············},	24	············},
25	············"outputs":·[],	25	············"outputs":·[],
26	············"source":·[	26	············"source":·[
27	················"import·numpy·as·np\n",	27	················"import·numpy·as·np\n",
28	················"import·pandas·as·pd\n",	28	················"import·pandas·as·pd\n",
29	················"import·statsmodels.api·as·sm"	29	················"import·statsmodels.api·as·sm"
Offset 37, 18 lines modified		Offset 37, 18 lines modified
37	············]	37	············]
38	········},	38	········},
39	········{	39	········{
40	············"cell_type":·"code",	40	············"cell_type":·"code",
41	············"execution_count":·2,	41	············"execution_count":·2,
42	············"metadata":·{	42	············"metadata":·{
43	················"execution":·{	43	················"execution":·{
44	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2025-04-15T06:04:14.6~~7117~~4Z",	44	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2026-05-18T13:29:23.623864Z",
45	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2025-04-15T06:04:14.6~~705~~96Z",	45	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2026-05-18T13:29:23.623292Z",
46	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2025-04-15T06:04:14.682~~669~~Z",	46	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2026-05-18T13:29:23.632436Z",
47	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2025-04-15T06:04:14.681433Z"	47	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2026-05-18T13:29:23.630441Z"
48	················}	48	················}
49	············},	49	············},
50	············"outputs":·[],	50	············"outputs":·[],
51	············"source":·[	51	············"source":·[
52	················"p·=·5"	52	················"p·=·5"
53	············]	53	············]
54	········},	54	········},
Offset 60, 18 lines modified		Offset 60, 18 lines modified
60	············]	60	············]
61	········},	61	········},
62	········{	62	········{
63	············"cell_type":·"code",	63	············"cell_type":·"code",
64	············"execution_count":·3,	64	············"execution_count":·3,
65	············"metadata":·{	65	············"metadata":·{
66	················"execution":·{	66	················"execution":·{
67	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2025-04-15T06:04:14.6~~98857~~Z",	67	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2026-05-18T13:29:23.639738Z",
68	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2025-04-15T06:04:14.6~~98445~~Z",	68	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2026-05-18T13:29:23.639353Z",
69	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2025-04-15T06:04:14.~~710744~~Z",	69	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2026-05-18T13:29:23.651626Z",
70	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2025-04-15T06:04:14.~~709~~421Z"	70	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2026-05-18T13:29:23.650471Z"
71	················}	71	················}
72	············},	72	············},
73	············"outputs":·[],	73	············"outputs":·[],
74	············"source":·[	74	············"source":·[
75	················"groups_var·=·1\n",	75	················"groups_var·=·1\n",
76	················"level1_var·=·2\n",	76	················"level1_var·=·2\n",
77	················"level2_var·=·3\n",	77	················"level2_var·=·3\n",
Offset 86, 18 lines modified		Offset 86, 18 lines modified
86	············]	86	············]
87	········},	87	········},
88	········{	88	········{
89	············"cell_type":·"code",	89	············"cell_type":·"code",
90	············"execution_count":·4,	90	············"execution_count":·4,
91	············"metadata":·{	91	············"metadata":·{
92	················"execution":·{	92	················"execution":·{
93	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2025-04-15T06:04:14.~~718973~~Z",	93	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2026-05-18T13:29:23.659619Z",
94	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2025-04-15T06:04:14.~~718606~~Z",	94	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2026-05-18T13:29:23.659181Z",
95	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2025-04-15T06:04:14.726718Z",	95	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2026-05-18T13:29:23.671598Z",
96	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2025-04-15T06:04:14.~~725~~494Z"	96	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2026-05-18T13:29:23.670428Z"
97	················}	97	················}
98	············},	98	············},
99	············"outputs":·[],	99	············"outputs":·[],
100	············"source":·[	100	············"source":·[
101	················"n_groups·=·100"	101	················"n_groups·=·100"
102	············]	102	············]
103	········},	103	········},
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109	············]	109	············]
110	········},	110	········},
111	········{	111	········{
112	············"cell_type":·"code",	112	············"cell_type":·"code",
113	············"execution_count":·5,	113	············"execution_count":·5,
114	············"metadata":·{	114	············"metadata":·{
115	················"execution":·{	115	················"execution":·{
116	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2025-04-15T06:04:14.~~734~~868Z",	116	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2026-05-18T13:29:23.677839Z",
117	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2025-04-15T06:04:14.~~734~~447Z",	117	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2026-05-18T13:29:23.677438Z",
118	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2025-04-15T06:04:14.~~742~~443Z",	118	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2026-05-18T13:29:23.691446Z",
119	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2025-04-15T06:04:14.~~741~~418Z"	119	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2026-05-18T13:29:23.690450Z"
120	················}	120	················}
121	············},	121	············},
122	············"outputs":·[],	122	············"outputs":·[],
123	············"source":·[	123	············"source":·[
124	················"group_size·=·20\n",	124	················"group_size·=·20\n",
125	················"level1_size·=·10\n",	125	················"level1_size·=·10\n",
126	················"level2_size·=·5"	126	················"level2_size·=·5"
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134	············]	134	············]
135	········},	135	········},
136	········{	136	········{
137	············"cell_type":·"code",	137	············"cell_type":·"code",
138	············"execution_count":·6,	138	············"execution_count":·6,
139	············"metadata":·{	139	············"metadata":·{
140	················"execution":·{	140	················"execution":·{
141	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2025-04-15T06:04:14.750814Z",
142	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2025-04-15T06:04:14.750343Z",
143	····················"iopub.~~stat~~us.i~~dle~~":·"2025-04-15T06:04:14.759519Z",	141	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2026-05-18T13:29:23.699547Z",
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144	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2025-04-15T06:04:14.7~~58409~~Z"	144	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2026-05-18T13:29:23.710521Z"
145	················}	145	················}
146	············},	146	············},
147	············"outputs":·[],	147	············"outputs":·[],
148	············"source":·[	148	············"source":·[
149	················"n·=·n_groups··group_size··level1_size·*·level2_size"	149	················"n·=·n_groups··group_size··level1_size·*·level2_size"
150	············]	150	············]
151	········},	151	········},
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157	············]	157	············]
158	········},	158	········},
159	········{	159	········{
160	············"cell_type":·"code",	160	············"cell_type":·"code",
161	············"execution_count":·7,	161	············"execution_count":·7,
162	············"metadata":·{	162	············"metadata":·{
163	················"execution":·{	163	················"execution":·{
164	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2025-04-15T06:04:14.7~~66659~~Z",	164	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2026-05-18T13:29:23.719497Z",
165	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2025-04-15T06:04:14.7~~66240~~Z",	165	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2026-05-18T13:29:23.719115Z",
166	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2025-04-15T06:04:14.8~~50488~~Z",	166	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2026-05-18T13:29:23.835375Z",
167	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2025-04-15T06:04:14.849414Z"	167	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2026-05-18T13:29:23.834420Z"
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14	············]	14	············]
15	········},	15	········},
16	········{	16	········{
17	············"cell_type":·"code",	17	············"cell_type":·"code",
18	············"execution_count":·1,	18	············"execution_count":·1,
19	············"metadata":·{	19	············"metadata":·{
20	················"execution":·{	20	················"execution":·{
21	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2025-04-15T06:04:14.~~554285~~Z",	21	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2026-05-18T13:28:55.968977Z",
22	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2025-04-15T06:04:14.553868Z",	22	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2026-05-18T13:28:55.968632Z",
23	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2025-04-15T06:04:17.~~129~~846Z",	23	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2026-05-18T13:29:02.874831Z",
24	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2025-04-15T06:04:17.~~122504~~Z"	24	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2026-05-18T13:29:02.866456Z"
25	················}	25	················}
26	············},	26	············},
27	············"outputs":·[],	27	············"outputs":·[],
28	············"source":·[	28	············"source":·[
29	················"import·pandas·as·pd\n",	29	················"import·pandas·as·pd\n",
30	················"import·numpy·as·np\n",	30	················"import·numpy·as·np\n",
31	················"from·scipy.stats.distributions·import·norm,·poisson\n",	31	················"from·scipy.stats.distributions·import·norm,·poisson\n",
Offset 42, 18 lines modified		Offset 42, 18 lines modified
42	············]	42	············]
43	········},	43	········},
44	········{	44	········{
45	············"cell_type":·"code",	45	············"cell_type":·"code",
46	············"execution_count":·2,	46	············"execution_count":·2,
47	············"metadata":·{	47	············"metadata":·{
48	················"execution":·{	48	················"execution":·{
49	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2025-04-15T06:04:17.~~138~~829Z",	49	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2026-05-18T13:29:02.883856Z",
50	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2025-04-15T06:04:17.~~138~~266Z",	50	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2026-05-18T13:29:02.883234Z",
51	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2025-04-15T06:04:17.~~1618~~81Z",	51	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2026-05-18T13:29:02.899380Z",
52	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2025-04-15T06:04:17.~~155085~~Z"	52	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2026-05-18T13:29:02.898423Z"
53	················},	53	················},
54	················"lines_to_next_cell":·1	54	················"lines_to_next_cell":·1
55	············},	55	············},
56	············"outputs":·[],	56	············"outputs":·[],
57	············"source":·[	57	············"source":·[
58	················"def·negbinom(u,·mu,·scale):\n",	58	················"def·negbinom(u,·mu,·scale):\n",
59	················"····p·=·(scale·-·1)·/·scale\n",	59	················"····p·=·(scale·-·1)·/·scale\n",
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70	············]	70	············]
71	········},	71	········},
72	········{	72	········{
73	············"cell_type":·"code",	73	············"cell_type":·"code",
74	············"execution_count":·3,	74	············"execution_count":·3,
75	············"metadata":·{	75	············"metadata":·{
76	················"execution":·{	76	················"execution":·{
77	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2025-04-15T06:04:17.~~171~~679Z",	77	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2026-05-18T13:29:02.907613Z",
78	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2025-04-15T06:04:17.~~171~~255Z",	78	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2026-05-18T13:29:02.907207Z",
79	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2025-04-15T06:04:17.~~183386~~Z",	79	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2026-05-18T13:29:02.919457Z",
80	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2025-04-15T06:04:17.180920Z"	80	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2026-05-18T13:29:02.918460Z"
81	················}	81	················}
82	············},	82	············},
83	············"outputs":·[],	83	············"outputs":·[],
84	············"source":·[	84	············"source":·[
85	················"#·Sample·size\n",	85	················"#·Sample·size\n",
86	················"n·=·1000\n",	86	················"n·=·1000\n",
87	················"\n",	87	················"\n",
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106	············]	106	············]
107	········},	107	········},
108	········{	108	········{
109	············"cell_type":·"code",	109	············"cell_type":·"code",
110	············"execution_count":·4,	110	············"execution_count":·4,
111	············"metadata":·{	111	············"metadata":·{
112	················"execution":·{	112	················"execution":·{
113	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2025-04-15T06:04:17.187~~734~~Z",	113	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2026-05-18T13:29:02.927523Z",
114	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2025-04-15T06:04:17.187344Z",	114	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2026-05-18T13:29:02.927154Z",
115	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2025-04-15T06:04:17.194440Z",	115	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2026-05-18T13:29:02.935407Z",
116	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2025-04-15T06:04:17.193439Z"	116	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2026-05-18T13:29:02.934422Z"
117	················}	117	················}
118	············},	118	············},
119	············"outputs":·[],	119	············"outputs":·[],
120	············"source":·[	120	············"source":·[
121	················"#·Build·a·design·matrix·for·the·alternative·(more·complex)·model\n",	121	················"#·Build·a·design·matrix·for·the·alternative·(more·complex)·model\n",
122	················"x·=·np.random.normal(size=(n,·p))\n",	122	················"x·=·np.random.normal(size=(n,·p))\n",
123	················"x[:,·0]·=·1"	123	················"x[:,·0]·=·1"
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131	············]	131	············]
132	········},	132	········},
133	········{	133	········{
134	············"cell_type":·"code",	134	············"cell_type":·"code",
135	············"execution_count":·5,	135	············"execution_count":·5,
136	············"metadata":·{	136	············"metadata":·{
137	················"execution":·{	137	················"execution":·{
138	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2025-04-15T06:04:17.~~1991~~57Z",	138	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2026-05-18T13:29:02.943652Z",
139	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2025-04-15T06:04:17.~~198734~~Z",	139	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2026-05-18T13:29:02.943225Z",
140	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2025-04-15T06:04:17.~~204~~420Z",	140	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2026-05-18T13:29:02.951447Z",
141	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2025-04-15T06:04:17.~~203~~488Z"	141	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2026-05-18T13:29:02.950420Z"
142	················}	142	················}
143	············},	143	············},
144	············"outputs":·[],	144	············"outputs":·[],
145	············"source":·[	145	············"source":·[
146	················"x0·=·x[:,·0:3]"	146	················"x0·=·x[:,·0:3]"
147	············]	147	············]
148	········},	148	········},
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154	············]	154	············]
155	········},	155	········},
156	········{	156	········{
157	············"cell_type":·"code",	157	············"cell_type":·"code",
158	············"execution_count":·6,	158	············"execution_count":·6,
159	············"metadata":·{	159	············"metadata":·{
160	················"execution":·{	160	················"execution":·{
161	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2025-04-15T06:04:17.~~208423~~Z",	161	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2026-05-18T13:29:02.959515Z",
162	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2025-04-15T06:04:17.~~208040~~Z",	162	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2026-05-18T13:29:02.959122Z",
163	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2025-04-15T06:04:17.~~213604~~Z",	163	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2026-05-18T13:29:02.967483Z",
164	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2025-04-15T06:04:17.~~21250~~4Z"	164	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2026-05-18T13:29:02.966424Z"
165	················}	165	················}
166	············},	166	············},
167	············"outputs":·[],	167	············"outputs":·[],
168	············"source":·[	168	············"source":·[
169	················"#·Scale·parameter·for·negative·binomial·distribution\n",	169	················"#·Scale·parameter·for·negative·binomial·distribution\n",
170	················"scale·=·10"	170	················"scale·=·10"
171	············]	171	············]
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178	············]	178	············]
179	········},	179	········},
180	········{	180	········{
181	············"cell_type":·"code",	181	············"cell_type":·"code",
182	············"execution_count":·7,	182	············"execution_count":·7,
183	············"metadata":·{	183	············"metadata":·{
184	················"execution":·{	184	················"execution":·{
185	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2025-04-15T06:04:17.~~217686~~Z",	185	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2026-05-18T13:29:02.975471Z",
186	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2025-04-15T06:04:17.~~2172~~87Z",	186	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2026-05-18T13:29:02.975086Z",
187	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2025-04-15T06:04:17.~~224206~~Z",	187	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2026-05-18T13:29:02.987548Z",
188	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2025-04-15T06:04:17.~~22324~~1Z"	188	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2026-05-18T13:29:02.986431Z"
189	················}	189	················}
190	············},	190	············},
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27	············]	27	············]
28	········},	28	········},
29	········{	29	········{
30	············"cell_type":·"code",	30	············"cell_type":·"code",
31	············"execution_count":·1,	31	············"execution_count":·1,
32	············"metadata":·{	32	············"metadata":·{
33	················"execution":·{	33	················"execution":·{
34	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2025-04-15T06:04:05.054554Z",
35	····················"iopub.~~sta~~t~~us.busy~~":·"2025-04-15T06:04:05.054155Z",	34	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2026-05-18T13:28:56.563500Z",
		35	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2026-05-18T13:28:56.563104Z",
36	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2025-04-15T06:04:07.~~722~~481Z",	36	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2026-05-18T13:28:59.634441Z",
37	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2025-04-15T06:04:07.~~721~~431Z"	37	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2026-05-18T13:28:59.618437Z"
38	················},	38	················},
39	················"jupyter":·{	39	················"jupyter":·{
40	····················"outputs_hidden":·false	40	····················"outputs_hidden":·false
41	················}	41	················}
42	············},	42	············},
43	············"outputs":·[],	43	············"outputs":·[],
44	············"source":·[	44	············"source":·[
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56	············]	56	············]
57	········},	57	········},
58	········{	58	········{
59	············"cell_type":·"code",	59	············"cell_type":·"code",
60	············"execution_count":·2,	60	············"execution_count":·2,
61	············"metadata":·{	61	············"metadata":·{
62	················"execution":·{	62	················"execution":·{
63	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2025-04-15T06:04:07.~~730724~~Z",	63	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2026-05-18T13:28:59.647886Z",
64	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2025-04-15T06:04:07.730171Z",	64	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2026-05-18T13:28:59.647337Z",
65	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2025-04-15T06:04:07.~~762053~~Z",	65	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2026-05-18T13:29:00.534466Z",
66	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2025-04-15T06:04:07.~~756120~~Z"	66	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2026-05-18T13:29:00.518459Z"
67	················},	67	················},
68	················"jupyter":·{	68	················"jupyter":·{
69	····················"outputs_hidden":·false	69	····················"outputs_hidden":·false
70	················}	70	················}
71	············},	71	············},
72	············"outputs":·[	72	············"outputs":·[
73	················{	73	················{
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113	············]	113	············]
114	········},	114	········},
115	········{	115	········{
116	············"cell_type":·"code",	116	············"cell_type":·"code",
117	············"execution_count":·3,	117	············"execution_count":·3,
118	············"metadata":·{	118	············"metadata":·{
119	················"execution":·{	119	················"execution":·{
120	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2025-04-15T06:04:07.7~~70447~~Z",	120	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2026-05-18T13:29:00.703661Z",
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23	················"%matplotlib·inline"	23	················"%matplotlib·inline"
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38	············"source":·[	38	············"source":·[
39	················"import·numpy·as·np\n",	39	················"import·numpy·as·np\n",
40	················"import·statsmodels.api·as·sm\n",	40	················"import·statsmodels.api·as·sm\n",
41	················"from·scipy·import·stats\n",	41	················"from·scipy·import·stats\n",
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59	············]	59	············]
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70	················}	70	················}
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73	················{	73	················{
74	····················"name":·"stdout",	74	····················"name":·"stdout",
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139	················}	139	················}
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143	················"data·=·sm.datasets.star98.load()\n",	143	················"data·=·sm.datasets.star98.load()\n",
144	················"data.exog·=·sm.add_constant(data.exog,·prepend=False)"	144	················"data.exog·=·sm.add_constant(data.exog,·prepend=False)"
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254	················"execution":·{	254	················"execution":·{
255	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2025-04-15T06:04:03.~~902607~~Z",	255	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2026-05-18T13:29:06.555539Z",
256	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2025-04-15T06:04:03.~~902~~186Z",	256	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2026-05-18T13:29:06.555172Z",
257	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2025-04-15T06:04:03.~~951581~~Z",	257	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2026-05-18T13:29:06.618967Z",
258	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2025-04-15T06:04:03.~~95060~~0Z"	258	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2026-05-18T13:29:06.617820Z"
259	················}	259	················}
260	············},	260	············},
261	············"outputs":·[	261	············"outputs":·[
262	················{	262	················{
263	····················"name":·"stdout",	263	····················"name":·"stdout",
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Offset 230, 17 lines modified		Offset 230, 17 lines modified
230	</pre></div></div>	230	</pre></div></div>
231	</div>	231	</div>
232	<div·class="nboutput·nblast·docutils·container">	232	<div·class="nboutput·nblast·docutils·container">
233	<div·class="prompt·empty·docutils·container">	233	<div·class="prompt·empty·docutils·container">
234	</div>	234	</div>
235	<div·class="output_area·stderr·docutils·container">	235	<div·class="output_area·stderr·docutils·container">
236	<div·class="highlight"><pre>	236	<div·class="highlight"><pre>
237	/tmp/ipykernel_~~58597~~/1000445862.py:1:·FutureWarning:·Series.__getitem__·treating·keys·as·positions·is·deprecated.·In·a·future·version,·integer·keys·will·always·be·treated·as·labels·(consistent·with·DataFrame·behavior).·To·access·a·value·by·position,·use·`ser.iloc[pos]`	237	/tmp/ipykernel_97650/1000445862.py:1:·FutureWarning:·Series.__getitem__·treating·keys·as·positions·is·deprecated.·In·a·future·version,·integer·keys·will·always·be·treated·as·labels·(consistent·with·DataFrame·behavior).·To·access·a·value·by·position,·use·`ser.iloc[pos]`
238	··print(mod1.params[1])	238	··print(mod1.params[1])
239	/tmp/ipykernel_~~58597~~/1000445862.py:2:·FutureWarning:·Series.__getitem__·treating·keys·as·positions·is·deprecated.·In·a·future·version,·integer·keys·will·always·be·treated·as·labels·(consistent·with·DataFrame·behavior).·To·access·a·value·by·position,·use·`ser.iloc[pos]`	239	/tmp/ipykernel_97650/1000445862.py:2:·FutureWarning:·Series.__getitem__·treating·keys·as·positions·is·deprecated.·In·a·future·version,·integer·keys·will·always·be·treated·as·labels·(consistent·with·DataFrame·behavior).·To·access·a·value·by·position,·use·`ser.iloc[pos]`
240	··print(mod2.params[1]·*·2)	240	··print(mod2.params[1]·*·2)
241	</pre></div></div>	241	</pre></div></div>
242	</div>	242	</div>
243	</section>	243	</section>


244	············<div·class="clearer"></div>	244	············<div·class="clearer"></div>


Offset 176, 20 lines modified		Offset 176, 20 lines modified
176	As·expected,·the·coefficient·for·double_it(LOWINC)·in·the·second·model·is·half	176	As·expected,·the·coefficient·for·double_it(LOWINC)·in·the·second·model·is·half
177	the·size·of·the·LOWINC·coefficient·from·the·first·model:	177	the·size·of·the·LOWINC·coefficient·from·the·first·model:
178	[4]:	178	[4]:
179	print(mod1.params[1])	179	print(mod1.params[1])
180	print(mod2.params[1]·*·2)	180	print(mod2.params[1]·*·2)
181	-0.020395987154756465	181	-0.020395987154756465
182	-0.02039598715475684	182	-0.02039598715475684
183	/tmp/ipykernel_~~58597~~/1000445862.py:1:·FutureWarning:·Series.__getitem__	183	/tmp/ipykernel_97650/1000445862.py:1:·FutureWarning:·Series.__getitem__
184	treating·keys·as·positions·is·deprecated.·In·a·future·version,·integer·keys	184	treating·keys·as·positions·is·deprecated.·In·a·future·version,·integer·keys
185	will·always·be·treated·as·labels·(consistent·with·DataFrame·behavior).·To	185	will·always·be·treated·as·labels·(consistent·with·DataFrame·behavior).·To
186	access·a·value·by·position,·use·`ser.iloc[pos]`	186	access·a·value·by·position,·use·`ser.iloc[pos]`
187	··print(mod1.params[1])	187	··print(mod1.params[1])
188	/tmp/ipykernel_~~58597~~/1000445862.py:2:·FutureWarning:·Series.__getitem__	188	/tmp/ipykernel_97650/1000445862.py:2:·FutureWarning:·Series.__getitem__
189	treating·keys·as·positions·is·deprecated.·In·a·future·version,·integer·keys	189	treating·keys·as·positions·is·deprecated.·In·a·future·version,·integer·keys
190	will·always·be·treated·as·labels·(consistent·with·DataFrame·behavior).·To	190	will·always·be·treated·as·labels·(consistent·with·DataFrame·behavior).·To
191	access·a·value·by·position,·use·`ser.iloc[pos]`	191	access·a·value·by·position,·use·`ser.iloc[pos]`
192	··print(mod2.params[1]·*·2)	192	··print(mod2.params[1]·*·2)
193	_\x8[_\x8L_\x8o_\x8g_\x8o_\x8·_\x8o_\x8f_\x8·_\x8s_\x8t_\x8a_\x8t_\x8s_\x8m_\x8o_\x8d_\x8e_\x8l_\x8s_\x8·_\x80_\x8._\x81_\x84_\x8._\x84_\x8+_\x8d_\x8f_\x8s_\x8g_\x8]	193	_\x8[_\x8L_\x8o_\x8g_\x8o_\x8·_\x8o_\x8f_\x8·_\x8s_\x8t_\x8a_\x8t_\x8s_\x8m_\x8o_\x8d_\x8e_\x8l_\x8s_\x8·_\x80_\x8._\x81_\x84_\x8._\x84_\x8+_\x8d_\x8f_\x8s_\x8g_\x8]
194	\x8\x8\x8\x8·_\x8T\x8T_\x8a\x8a_\x8b\x8b_\x8l\x8l_\x8e\x8e_\x8·_\x8o\x8o_\x8f\x8f_\x8·_\x8C\x8C_\x8o\x8o_\x8n\x8n_\x8t\x8t_\x8e\x8e_\x8n\x8n_\x8t\x8t_\x8s\x8s·\x8\x8\x8\x8	194	\x8\x8\x8\x8·_\x8T\x8T_\x8a\x8a_\x8b\x8b_\x8l\x8l_\x8e\x8e_\x8·_\x8o\x8o_\x8f\x8f_\x8·_\x8C\x8C_\x8o\x8o_\x8n\x8n_\x8t\x8t_\x8e\x8e_\x8n\x8n_\x8t\x8t_\x8s\x8s·\x8\x8\x8\x8
195	····*·_\x8I_\x8n_\x8s_\x8t_\x8a_\x8l_\x8l_\x8i_\x8n_\x8g_\x8·_\x8s_\x8t_\x8a_\x8t_\x8s_\x8m_\x8o_\x8d_\x8e_\x8l_\x8s	195	····*·_\x8I_\x8n_\x8s_\x8t_\x8a_\x8l_\x8l_\x8i_\x8n_\x8g_\x8·_\x8s_\x8t_\x8a_\x8t_\x8s_\x8m_\x8o_\x8d_\x8e_\x8l_\x8s


Offset 17, 18 lines modified		Offset 17, 18 lines modified
17	············]	17	············]
18	········},	18	········},
19	········{	19	········{
20	············"cell_type":·"code",	20	············"cell_type":·"code",
21	············"execution_count":·1,	21	············"execution_count":·1,
22	············"metadata":·{	22	············"metadata":·{
23	················"execution":·{	23	················"execution":·{
24	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2025-04-15T06:04:01.~~740946~~Z",	24	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2026-05-18T13:28:56.555510Z",
25	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2025-04-15T06:04:01.~~740547~~Z",	25	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2026-05-18T13:28:56.555135Z",
26	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2025-04-15T06:04:03.~~899095~~Z",	26	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2026-05-18T13:29:01.027512Z",
27	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2025-04-15T06:04:03.~~8955~~35Z"	27	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2026-05-18T13:29:01.026439Z"
28	················},	28	················},
29	················"jupyter":·{	29	················"jupyter":·{
30	····················"outputs_hidden":·false	30	····················"outputs_hidden":·false
31	················}	31	················}
32	············},	32	············},
33	············"outputs":·[],	33	············"outputs":·[],
34	············"source":·[	34	············"source":·[
Offset 69, 18 lines modified		Offset 69, 18 lines modified
69	············]	69	············]
70	········},	70	········},
71	········{	71	········{
72	············"cell_type":·"code",	72	············"cell_type":·"code",
73	············"execution_count":·2,	73	············"execution_count":·2,
74	············"metadata":·{	74	············"metadata":·{
75	················"execution":·{	75	················"execution":·{
76	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2025-04-15T06:04:03.~~9146~~34Z",	76	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2026-05-18T13:29:01.035531Z",
77	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2025-04-15T06:04:03.~~914217~~Z",	77	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2026-05-18T13:29:01.035129Z",
78	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2025-04-15T06:04:03.9~~894~~54Z",	78	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2026-05-18T13:29:01.147542Z",
79	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2025-04-15T06:04:03.~~988~~459Z"	79	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2026-05-18T13:29:01.146432Z"
80	················},	80	················},
81	················"jupyter":·{	81	················"jupyter":·{
82	····················"outputs_hidden":·false	82	····················"outputs_hidden":·false
83	················}	83	················}
84	············},	84	············},
85	············"outputs":·[	85	············"outputs":·[
86	················{	86	················{
Offset 139, 18 lines modified		Offset 139, 18 lines modified
139	············]	139	············]
140	········},	140	········},
141	········{	141	········{
142	············"cell_type":·"code",	142	············"cell_type":·"code",
143	············"execution_count":·3,	143	············"execution_count":·3,
144	············"metadata":·{	144	············"metadata":·{
145	················"execution":·{	145	················"execution":·{
146	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2025-04-15T06:04:03.~~994195~~Z",	146	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2026-05-18T13:29:01.331529Z",
147	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2025-04-15T06:04:03.~~993803~~Z",	147	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2026-05-18T13:29:01.331145Z",
148	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2025-04-15T06:04:04.~~097805~~Z",	148	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2026-05-18T13:29:01.449267Z",
149	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2025-04-15T06:04:04.~~079800~~Z"	149	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2026-05-18T13:29:01.446434Z"
150	················},	150	················},
151	················"jupyter":·{	151	················"jupyter":·{
152	····················"outputs_hidden":·false	152	····················"outputs_hidden":·false
153	················}	153	················}
154	············},	154	············},
155	············"outputs":·[	155	············"outputs":·[
156	················{	156	················{
Offset 215, 18 lines modified		Offset 215, 18 lines modified
215	············]	215	············]
216	········},	216	········},
217	········{	217	········{
218	············"cell_type":·"code",	218	············"cell_type":·"code",
219	············"execution_count":·4,	219	············"execution_count":·4,
220	············"metadata":·{	220	············"metadata":·{
221	················"execution":·{	221	················"execution":·{
222	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2025-04-15T06:04:04.~~114131~~Z",	222	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2026-05-18T13:29:01.455569Z",
223	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2025-04-15T06:04:04.~~113702~~Z",	223	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2026-05-18T13:29:01.455186Z",
224	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2025-04-15T06:04:04.149~~444~~Z",	224	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2026-05-18T13:29:01.479523Z",
225	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2025-04-15T06:04:04.~~133~~411Z"	225	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2026-05-18T13:29:01.478422Z"
226	················},	226	················},
227	················"jupyter":·{	227	················"jupyter":·{
228	····················"outputs_hidden":·false	228	····················"outputs_hidden":·false
229	················}	229	················}
230	············},	230	············},
231	············"outputs":·[	231	············"outputs":·[
232	················{	232	················{
Offset 237, 17 lines modified		Offset 237, 17 lines modified
237	························"-0.02039598715475684\n"	237	························"-0.02039598715475684\n"
238	····················]	238	····················]
239	················},	239	················},
240	················{	240	················{
241	····················"name":·"stderr",	241	····················"name":·"stderr",
242	····················"output_type":·"stream",	242	····················"output_type":·"stream",
243	····················"text":·[	243	····················"text":·[
244	························"/tmp/ipykernel_~~58597~~/1000445862.py:1:·FutureWarning:·Series.__getitem__·treating·keys·as·positions·is·deprecated.·In·a·future·version,·integer·keys·will·always·be·treated·as·labels·(consistent·with·DataFrame·behavior).·To·access·a·value·by·position,·use·`ser.iloc[pos]`\n",	244	························"/tmp/ipykernel_97650/1000445862.py:1:·FutureWarning:·Series.__getitem__·treating·keys·as·positions·is·deprecated.·In·a·future·version,·integer·keys·will·always·be·treated·as·labels·(consistent·with·DataFrame·behavior).·To·access·a·value·by·position,·use·`ser.iloc[pos]`\n",
245	························"··print(mod1.params[1])\n",	245	························"··print(mod1.params[1])\n",
246	························"/tmp/ipykernel_~~58597~~/1000445862.py:2:·FutureWarning:·Series.__getitem__·treating·keys·as·positions·is·deprecated.·In·a·future·version,·integer·keys·will·always·be·treated·as·labels·(consistent·with·DataFrame·behavior).·To·access·a·value·by·position,·use·`ser.iloc[pos]`\n",	246	························"/tmp/ipykernel_97650/1000445862.py:2:·FutureWarning:·Series.__getitem__·treating·keys·as·positions·is·deprecated.·In·a·future·version,·integer·keys·will·always·be·treated·as·labels·(consistent·with·DataFrame·behavior).·To·access·a·value·by·position,·use·`ser.iloc[pos]`\n",
247	························"··print(mod2.params[1]·*·2)\n"	247	························"··print(mod2.params[1]·*·2)\n"
248	····················]	248	····················]
249	················}	249	················}
250	············],	250	············],
251	············"source":·[	251	············"source":·[
252	················"print(mod1.params[1])\n",	252	················"print(mod1.params[1])\n",
253	················"print(mod2.params[1]·*·2)"	253	················"print(mod2.params[1]·*·2)"


Offset 18, 18 lines modified		Offset 18, 18 lines modified
18	············]	18	············]
19	········},	19	········},
20	········{	20	········{
21	············"cell_type":·"code",	21	············"cell_type":·"code",
22	············"execution_count":·1,	22	············"execution_count":·1,
23	············"metadata":·{	23	············"metadata":·{
24	················"execution":·{	24	················"execution":·{
25	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2025-04-15T06:03:52.393~~477~~Z",	25	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2026-05-18T13:29:15.603622Z",
26	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2025-04-15T06:03:52.393~~097~~Z",	26	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2026-05-18T13:29:15.603181Z",
27	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2025-04-15T06:03:53.93~~7772~~Z",	27	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2026-05-18T13:29:19.235644Z",
28	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2025-04-15T06:03:53.93~~0359~~Z"	28	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2026-05-18T13:29:19.234482Z"
29	················}	29	················}
30	············},	30	············},
31	············"outputs":·[],	31	············"outputs":·[],
32	············"source":·[	32	············"source":·[
33	················"import·pandas·as·pd\n",	33	················"import·pandas·as·pd\n",
34	················"import·numpy·as·np\n",	34	················"import·numpy·as·np\n",
35	················"import·statsmodels.api·as·sm\n",	35	················"import·statsmodels.api·as·sm\n",
Offset 44, 18 lines modified		Offset 44, 18 lines modified
44	············]	44	············]
45	········},	45	········},
46	········{	46	········{
47	············"cell_type":·"code",	47	············"cell_type":·"code",
48	············"execution_count":·2,	48	············"execution_count":·2,
49	············"metadata":·{	49	············"metadata":·{
50	················"execution":·{	50	················"execution":·{
51	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2025-04-15T06:03:53.94~~4983~~Z",	51	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2026-05-18T13:29:19.243770Z",
52	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2025-04-15T06:03:53.94~~4591~~Z",	52	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2026-05-18T13:29:19.243213Z",
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54	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2025-04-15T06:03:53.95~~2228~~Z"	54	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2026-05-18T13:29:19.254430Z"
55	················}	55	················}
56	············},	56	············},
57	············"outputs":·[],	57	············"outputs":·[],
58	············"source":·[	58	············"source":·[
59	················"np.random.seed(3424)"	59	················"np.random.seed(3424)"
60	············]	60	············]
61	········},	61	········},
Offset 67, 18 lines modified		Offset 67, 18 lines modified
67	············]	67	············]
68	········},	68	········},
69	········{	69	········{
70	············"cell_type":·"code",	70	············"cell_type":·"code",
71	············"execution_count":·3,	71	············"execution_count":·3,
72	············"metadata":·{	72	············"metadata":·{
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74	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2025-04-15T06:03:53.~~971838~~Z",	74	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2026-05-18T13:29:19.263670Z",
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77	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2025-04-15T06:03:53.97~~5970~~Z"	77	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2026-05-18T13:29:19.270432Z"
78	················}	78	················}
79	············},	79	············},
80	············"outputs":·[],	80	············"outputs":·[],
81	············"source":·[	81	············"source":·[
82	················"n·=·1000"	82	················"n·=·1000"
83	············]	83	············]
84	········},	84	········},
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90	············]	90	············]
91	········},	91	········},
92	········{	92	········{
93	············"cell_type":·"code",	93	············"cell_type":·"code",
94	············"execution_count":·4,	94	············"execution_count":·4,
95	············"metadata":·{	95	············"metadata":·{
96	················"execution":·{	96	················"execution":·{
97	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2025-04-15T06:03:53.~~980681~~Z",	97	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2026-05-18T13:29:19.279707Z",
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100	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2025-04-15T06:03:53.984892Z"	100	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2026-05-18T13:29:19.290437Z"
101	················},	101	················},
102	················"lines_to_next_cell":·1	102	················"lines_to_next_cell":·1
103	············},	103	············},
104	············"outputs":·[],	104	············"outputs":·[],
105	············"source":·[	105	············"source":·[
106	················"exp·=·np.random.normal(size=n)"	106	················"exp·=·np.random.normal(size=n)"
107	············]	107	············]
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114	············]	114	············]
115	········},	115	········},
116	········{	116	········{
117	············"cell_type":·"code",	117	············"cell_type":·"code",
118	············"execution_count":·5,	118	············"execution_count":·5,
119	············"metadata":·{	119	············"metadata":·{
120	················"execution":·{	120	················"execution":·{
121	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2025-04-15T06:03:54.~~002490~~Z",	121	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2026-05-18T13:29:19.297663Z",
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124	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2025-04-15T06:03:54.~~029~~420Z"	124	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2026-05-18T13:29:19.310435Z"
125	················},	125	················},
126	················"lines_to_next_cell":·1	126	················"lines_to_next_cell":·1
127	············},	127	············},
128	············"outputs":·[],	128	············"outputs":·[],
129	············"source":·[	129	············"source":·[
130	················"def·gen_mediator():\n",	130	················"def·gen_mediator():\n",
131	················"····mn·=·np.exp(exp)\n",	131	················"····mn·=·np.exp(exp)\n",
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144	············]	144	············]
145	········},	145	········},
146	········{	146	········{
147	············"cell_type":·"code",	147	············"cell_type":·"code",
148	············"execution_count":·6,	148	············"execution_count":·6,
149	············"metadata":·{	149	············"metadata":·{
150	················"execution":·{	150	················"execution":·{
151	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2025-04-15T06:03:54.~~035738~~Z",	151	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2026-05-18T13:29:19.321660Z",
152	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2025-04-15T06:03:54.035329Z",	152	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2026-05-18T13:29:19.321281Z",
153	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2025-04-15T06:03:54.~~065429~~Z",	153	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2026-05-18T13:29:19.336803Z",
154	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2025-04-15T06:03:54.~~053~~410Z"	154	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2026-05-18T13:29:19.334432Z"
155	················},	155	················},
156	················"lines_to_next_cell":·1	156	················"lines_to_next_cell":·1
157	············},	157	············},
158	············"outputs":·[],	158	············"outputs":·[],
159	············"source":·[	159	············"source":·[
160	················"def·gen_outcome(otype,·mtime0):\n",	160	················"def·gen_outcome(otype,·mtime0):\n",
161	················"····if·otype·==·\"full\":\n",	161	················"····if·otype·==·\"full\":\n",
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180	············]	180	············]
181	········},	181	········},
182	········{	182	········{
183	············"cell_type":·"code",	183	············"cell_type":·"code",
184	············"execution_count":·7,	184	············"execution_count":·7,
185	············"metadata":·{	185	············"metadata":·{
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187	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2025-04-15T06:03:54.~~076224~~Z",	187	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2026-05-18T13:29:19.343748Z",
188	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2025-04-15T06:03:54.~~0758~~35Z",	188	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2026-05-18T13:29:19.343338Z",
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190	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2025-04-15T06:03:54.~~085862~~Z"	190	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2026-05-18T13:29:19.350434Z"
191	················},	191	················},
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24	············]	24	············]
25	········},	25	········},
26	········{	26	········{
27	············"cell_type":·"code",	27	············"cell_type":·"code",
28	············"execution_count":·1,	28	············"execution_count":·1,
29	············"metadata":·{	29	············"metadata":·{
30	················"execution":·{	30	················"execution":·{
31	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2025-04-15T06:03:52.~~382147~~Z",	31	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2026-05-18T13:29:15.199734Z",
32	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2025-04-15T06:03:52.~~381~~300Z",	32	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2026-05-18T13:29:15.199309Z",
33	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2025-04-15T06:03:55.~~681861~~Z",	33	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2026-05-18T13:29:16.575474Z",
34	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2025-04-15T06:03:55.67~~2949~~Z"	34	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2026-05-18T13:29:16.574431Z"
35	················}	35	················}
36	············},	36	············},
37	············"outputs":·[],	37	············"outputs":·[],
38	············"source":·[	38	············"source":·[
39	················"%matplotlib·inline"	39	················"%matplotlib·inline"
40	············]	40	············]
41	········},	41	········},
42	········{	42	········{
43	············"cell_type":·"code",	43	············"cell_type":·"code",
44	············"execution_count":·2,	44	············"execution_count":·2,
45	············"metadata":·{	45	············"metadata":·{
46	················"execution":·{	46	················"execution":·{
47	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2025-04-15T06:03:55.~~694775~~Z",	47	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2026-05-18T13:29:16.579668Z",
48	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2025-04-15T06:03:55.~~6942~~65Z",	48	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2026-05-18T13:29:16.579166Z",
49	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2025-04-15T06:03:57.578119Z",	49	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2026-05-18T13:29:19.811828Z",
50	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2025-04-15T06:03:57.~~575514~~Z"	50	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2026-05-18T13:29:19.810670Z"
51	················}	51	················}
52	············},	52	············},
53	············"outputs":·[],	53	············"outputs":·[],
54	············"source":·[	54	············"source":·[
55	················"import·numpy·as·np\n",	55	················"import·numpy·as·np\n",
56	················"import·pandas·as·pd\n",	56	················"import·pandas·as·pd\n",
57	················"from·scipy·import·stats,·optimize\n",	57	················"from·scipy·import·stats,·optimize\n",
Offset 80, 18 lines modified		Offset 80, 18 lines modified
80	············]	80	············]
81	········},	81	········},
82	········{	82	········{
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84	············"execution_count":·3,	84	············"execution_count":·3,
85	············"metadata":·{	85	············"metadata":·{
86	················"execution":·{	86	················"execution":·{
87	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2025-04-15T06:03:57.582599Z",	87	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2026-05-18T13:29:19.831916Z",
88	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2025-04-15T06:03:57.581973Z",	88	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2026-05-18T13:29:19.831323Z",
89	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2025-04-15T06:03:57.596032Z",	89	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2026-05-18T13:29:19.855601Z",
90	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2025-04-15T06:03:57.594778Z"	90	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2026-05-18T13:29:19.854427Z"
91	················}	91	················}
92	············},	92	············},
93	············"outputs":·[	93	············"outputs":·[
94	················{	94	················{
95	····················"data":·{	95	····················"data":·{
96	························"text/plain":·[	96	························"text/plain":·[
97	····························"['Carroll',·'Grant',·'Peck',·'Donat',·'Stewart',·'Young']"	97	····························"['Carroll',·'Grant',·'Peck',·'Donat',·'Stewart',·'Young']"
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118	············]	118	············]
119	········},	119	········},
120	········{	120	········{
121	············"cell_type":·"code",	121	············"cell_type":·"code",
122	············"execution_count":·4,	122	············"execution_count":·4,
123	············"metadata":·{	123	············"metadata":·{
124	················"execution":·{	124	················"execution":·{
125	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2025-04-15T06:03:57.66~~256~~7Z",	125	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2026-05-18T13:29:19.863627Z",
126	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2025-04-15T06:03:57.66~~2156~~Z",	126	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2026-05-18T13:29:19.863207Z",
127	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2025-04-15T06:03:57.~~694470~~Z",	127	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2026-05-18T13:29:19.902248Z",
128	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2025-04-15T06:03:57.~~693~~417Z"	128	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2026-05-18T13:29:19.886437Z"
129	················}	129	················}
130	············},	130	············},
131	············"outputs":·[	131	············"outputs":·[
132	················{	132	················{
133	····················"data":·{	133	····················"data":·{
134	························"text/plain":·[	134	························"text/plain":·[
135	····························"['Carroll',·'Grant',·'Peck',·'Donat',·'Stewart',·'Young']"	135	····························"['Carroll',·'Grant',·'Peck',·'Donat',·'Stewart',·'Young']"
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149	············]	149	············]
150	········},	150	········},
151	········{	151	········{
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154	············"metadata":·{	154	············"metadata":·{
155	················"execution":·{	155	················"execution":·{
156	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2025-04-15T06:03:57.~~702469~~Z",	156	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2026-05-18T13:29:19.919630Z",
157	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2025-04-15T06:03:57.~~702~~110Z",	157	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2026-05-18T13:29:19.919192Z",
158	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2025-04-15T06:03:57.714448Z",	158	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2026-05-18T13:29:19.970454Z",
159	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2025-04-15T06:03:57.~~713~~405Z"	159	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2026-05-18T13:29:19.954455Z"
160	················}	160	················}
161	············},	161	············},
162	············"outputs":·[	162	············"outputs":·[
163	················{	163	················{
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166	····························"array([120,·130,··80,·400,··95,·170],·dtype=int64)"	166	····························"array([120,·130,··80,·400,··95,·170],·dtype=int64)"
Offset 183, 18 lines modified		Offset 183, 18 lines modified
183	············]	183	············]
184	········},	184	········},
185	········{	185	········{
186	············"cell_type":·"code",	186	············"cell_type":·"code",
187	············"execution_count":·6,	187	············"execution_count":·6,
188	············"metadata":·{	188	············"metadata":·{
189	················"execution":·{	189	················"execution":·{
190	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2025-04-15T06:03:57.~~722~~593Z",	190	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2026-05-18T13:29:19.987580Z",
191	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2025-04-15T06:03:57.~~722204~~Z",	191	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2026-05-18T13:29:19.987191Z",
192	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2025-04-15T06:03:57.~~730~~478Z",	192	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2026-05-18T13:29:20.007435Z",
193	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2025-04-15T06:03:57.~~729~~401Z"	193	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2026-05-18T13:29:20.006432Z"
194	················}	194	················}
195	············},	195	············},
196	············"outputs":·[],	196	············"outputs":·[],
197	············"source":·[	197	············"source":·[
198	················"eff,·var_eff·=·effectsize_smd(mean2,·sd2,·nobs2,·mean1,·sd1,·nobs1)"	198	················"eff,·var_eff·=·effectsize_smd(mean2,·sd2,·nobs2,·mean1,·sd1,·nobs1)"
199	············]	199	············]
200	········},	200	········},
Offset 209, 18 lines modified		Offset 209, 18 lines modified
209	············]	209	············]
210	········},	210	········},
211	········{	211	········{
212	············"cell_type":·"code",	212	············"cell_type":·"code",
213	············"execution_count":·7,	213	············"execution_count":·7,
214	············"metadata":·{	214	············"metadata":·{
215	················"execution":·{	215	················"execution":·{
216	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2025-04-15T06:03:57.~~742~~579Z",	216	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2026-05-18T13:29:20.023505Z",
217	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2025-04-15T06:03:57.~~742~~155Z",	217	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2026-05-18T13:29:20.023131Z",
218	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2025-04-15T06:03:57.~~781748~~Z",	218	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2026-05-18T13:29:20.049281Z",
219	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2025-04-15T06:03:57.~~773420~~Z"	219	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2026-05-18T13:29:20.045793Z"
220	················}	220	················}
221	············},	221	············},
222	············"outputs":·[	222	············"outputs":·[
223	················{	223	················{
224	····················"name":·"stdout",	224	····················"name":·"stdout",
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Offset 543, 15 lines modified		Offset 543, 15 lines modified
543	</div>	543	</div>
544	</div>	544	</div>
545	<div·class="nboutput·docutils·container">	545	<div·class="nboutput·docutils·container">
546	<div·class="prompt·empty·docutils·container">	546	<div·class="prompt·empty·docutils·container">
547	</div>	547	</div>
548	<div·class="output_area·stderr·docutils·container">	548	<div·class="output_area·stderr·docutils·container">
549	<div·class="highlight"><pre>	549	<div·class="highlight"><pre>
550	/tmp/ipykernel_~~54463~~/427128218.py:3:·UserWarning:·set_ticklabels()·should·only·be·used·with·a·fixed·number·of·ticks,·i.e.·after·set_ticks()·or·using·a·FixedLocator.	550	/tmp/ipykernel_101352/427128218.py:3:·UserWarning:·set_ticklabels()·should·only·be·used·with·a·fixed·number·of·ticks,·i.e.·after·set_ticks()·or·using·a·FixedLocator.
551	··ax.set_xticklabels(dta.columns.values[::10])	551	··ax.set_xticklabels(dta.columns.values[::10])
552	</pre></div></div>	552	</pre></div></div>
553	</div>	553	</div>
554	<div·class="nboutput·nblast·docutils·container">	554	<div·class="nboutput·nblast·docutils·container">
555	<div·class="prompt·empty·docutils·container">	555	<div·class="prompt·empty·docutils·container">
556	</div>	556	</div>
557	<div·class="output_area·docutils·container">	557	<div·class="output_area·docutils·container">


Offset 126, 15 lines modified		Offset 126, 15 lines modified
126	lines·=·ax.plot(pca_model.factors.iloc[:,·:3],·lw=4,·alpha=0.6)	126	lines·=·ax.plot(pca_model.factors.iloc[:,·:3],·lw=4,·alpha=0.6)
127	ax.set_xticklabels(dta.columns.values[::10])	127	ax.set_xticklabels(dta.columns.values[::10])
128	ax.set_xlim(0,·51)	128	ax.set_xlim(0,·51)
129	ax.set_xlabel("Year",·size=17)	129	ax.set_xlabel("Year",·size=17)
130	fig.subplots_adjust(0.1,·0.1,·0.85,·0.9)	130	fig.subplots_adjust(0.1,·0.1,·0.85,·0.9)
131	legend·=·fig.legend(lines,·["PC·1",·"PC·2",·"PC·3"],·loc="center·right")	131	legend·=·fig.legend(lines,·["PC·1",·"PC·2",·"PC·3"],·loc="center·right")
132	legend.draw_frame(False)	132	legend.draw_frame(False)
133	/tmp/ipykernel_~~54463~~/427128218.py:3:·UserWarning:·set_ticklabels()·should·only	133	/tmp/ipykernel_101352/427128218.py:3:·UserWarning:·set_ticklabels()·should·only
134	be·used·with·a·fixed·number·of·ticks,·i.e.·after·set_ticks()·or·using·a	134	be·used·with·a·fixed·number·of·ticks,·i.e.·after·set_ticks()·or·using·a
135	FixedLocator.	135	FixedLocator.
136	··ax.set_xticklabels(dta.columns.values[::10])	136	··ax.set_xticklabels(dta.columns.values[::10])
137	[../../../_images/examples_notebooks_generated_pca_fertility_factors_15_1.png]	137	[../../../_images/examples_notebooks_generated_pca_fertility_factors_15_1.png]
138	To·better·understand·what·is·going·on,·we·will·plot·the·fertility·trajectories	138	To·better·understand·what·is·going·on,·we·will·plot·the·fertility·trajectories
139	for·sets·of·countries·with·similar·PC·scores.·The·following·convenience	139	for·sets·of·countries·with·similar·PC·scores.·The·following·convenience
140	function·produces·such·a·plot.	140	function·produces·such·a·plot.


Offset 481, 17 lines modified		Offset 481, 17 lines modified
481	</div>	481	</div>
482	<div·class="output_area·stderr·docutils·container">	482	<div·class="output_area·stderr·docutils·container">
483	<div·class="highlight"><pre>	483	<div·class="highlight"><pre>
484	<>:18:·SyntaxWarning:·invalid·escape·sequence·'\$'	484	<>:18:·SyntaxWarning:·invalid·escape·sequence·'\$'
485	<>:30:·SyntaxWarning:·invalid·escape·sequence·'\$'	485	<>:30:·SyntaxWarning:·invalid·escape·sequence·'\$'
486	<>:18:·SyntaxWarning:·invalid·escape·sequence·'\$'	486	<>:18:·SyntaxWarning:·invalid·escape·sequence·'\$'
487	<>:30:·SyntaxWarning:·invalid·escape·sequence·'\$'	487	<>:30:·SyntaxWarning:·invalid·escape·sequence·'\$'
488	/tmp/ipykernel_~~5446~~2/1205084488.py:18:·SyntaxWarning:·invalid·escape·sequence·'\$'	488	/tmp/ipykernel_109528/1205084488.py:18:·SyntaxWarning:·invalid·escape·sequence·'\$'
489	··plot_opts["bean_legend_text"]·=·"Income·<·\$30k"	489	··plot_opts["bean_legend_text"]·=·"Income·<·\$30k"
490	/tmp/ipykernel_~~5446~~2/1205084488.py:30:·SyntaxWarning:·invalid·escape·sequence·'\$'	490	/tmp/ipykernel_109528/1205084488.py:30:·SyntaxWarning:·invalid·escape·sequence·'\$'
491	··plot_opts["bean_legend_text"]·=·"Income·>·\$50k"	491	··plot_opts["bean_legend_text"]·=·"Income·>·\$50k"
492	</pre></div></div>	492	</pre></div></div>
493	</div>	493	</div>
494	<div·class="nboutput·docutils·container">	494	<div·class="nboutput·docutils·container">
495	<div·class="prompt·highlight-none·notranslate"><div·class="highlight"><pre><span></span>[15]:	495	<div·class="prompt·highlight-none·notranslate"><div·class="highlight"><pre><span></span>[15]:
496	</pre></div>	496	</pre></div>
497	</div>	497	</div>


Offset 238, 18 lines modified		Offset 238, 18 lines modified

238	#·Show·all·plots.	238	#·Show·all·plots.
239	#·plt.show()	239	#·plt.show()
240	<>:18:·SyntaxWarning:·invalid·escape·sequence·'\$'	240	<>:18:·SyntaxWarning:·invalid·escape·sequence·'\$'
241	<>:30:·SyntaxWarning:·invalid·escape·sequence·'\$'	241	<>:30:·SyntaxWarning:·invalid·escape·sequence·'\$'
242	<>:18:·SyntaxWarning:·invalid·escape·sequence·'\$'	242	<>:18:·SyntaxWarning:·invalid·escape·sequence·'\$'
243	<>:30:·SyntaxWarning:·invalid·escape·sequence·'\$'	243	<>:30:·SyntaxWarning:·invalid·escape·sequence·'\$'
244	/tmp/ipykernel_~~5446~~2/1205084488.py:18:·SyntaxWarning:·invalid·escape·sequence	244	/tmp/ipykernel_109528/1205084488.py:18:·SyntaxWarning:·invalid·escape·sequence
245	'\$'	245	'\$'
246	··plot_opts["bean_legend_text"]·=·"Income·<·\$30k"	246	··plot_opts["bean_legend_text"]·=·"Income·<·\$30k"
247	/tmp/ipykernel_~~5446~~2/1205084488.py:30:·SyntaxWarning:·invalid·escape·sequence	247	/tmp/ipykernel_109528/1205084488.py:30:·SyntaxWarning:·invalid·escape·sequence
248	'\$'	248	'\$'
249	··plot_opts["bean_legend_text"]·=·"Income·>·\$50k"	249	··plot_opts["bean_legend_text"]·=·"Income·>·\$50k"
250	[15]:	250	[15]:
251	Text(0.5,·1.0,·"US·national·election·'96·-·Age·&·Party·Identification")	251	Text(0.5,·1.0,·"US·national·election·'96·-·Age·&·Party·Identification")
252	[../../../_images/examples_notebooks_generated_plots_boxplots_22_2.png]	252	[../../../_images/examples_notebooks_generated_plots_boxplots_22_2.png]
253	_\x8[_\x8L_\x8o_\x8g_\x8o_\x8·_\x8o_\x8f_\x8·_\x8s_\x8t_\x8a_\x8t_\x8s_\x8m_\x8o_\x8d_\x8e_\x8l_\x8s_\x8·_\x80_\x8._\x81_\x84_\x8._\x84_\x8+_\x8d_\x8f_\x8s_\x8g_\x8]	253	_\x8[_\x8L_\x8o_\x8g_\x8o_\x8·_\x8o_\x8f_\x8·_\x8s_\x8t_\x8a_\x8t_\x8s_\x8m_\x8o_\x8d_\x8e_\x8l_\x8s_\x8·_\x80_\x8._\x81_\x84_\x8._\x84_\x8+_\x8d_\x8f_\x8s_\x8g_\x8]
254	\x8\x8\x8\x8·_\x8T\x8T_\x8a\x8a_\x8b\x8b_\x8l\x8l_\x8e\x8e_\x8·_\x8o\x8o_\x8f\x8f_\x8·_\x8C\x8C_\x8o\x8o_\x8n\x8n_\x8t\x8t_\x8e\x8e_\x8n\x8n_\x8t\x8t_\x8s\x8s·\x8\x8\x8\x8	254	\x8\x8\x8\x8·_\x8T\x8T_\x8a\x8a_\x8b\x8b_\x8l\x8l_\x8e\x8e_\x8·_\x8o\x8o_\x8f\x8f_\x8·_\x8C\x8C_\x8o\x8o_\x8n\x8n_\x8t\x8t_\x8e\x8e_\x8n\x8n_\x8t\x8t_\x8s\x8s·\x8\x8\x8\x8


Offset 174, 17 lines modified		Offset 174, 17 lines modified
174	</div>	174	</div>
175	<div·class="output_area·stderr·docutils·container">	175	<div·class="output_area·stderr·docutils·container">
176	<div·class="highlight"><pre>	176	<div·class="highlight"><pre>
177	<>:5:·SyntaxWarning:·invalid·escape·sequence·'\p'	177	<>:5:·SyntaxWarning:·invalid·escape·sequence·'\p'
178	<>:5:·SyntaxWarning:·invalid·escape·sequence·'\p'	178	<>:5:·SyntaxWarning:·invalid·escape·sequence·'\p'
179	<>:5:·SyntaxWarning:·invalid·escape·sequence·'\p'	179	<>:5:·SyntaxWarning:·invalid·escape·sequence·'\p'
180	<>:5:·SyntaxWarning:·invalid·escape·sequence·'\p'	180	<>:5:·SyntaxWarning:·invalid·escape·sequence·'\p'
181	/tmp/ipykernel_~~65754~~/3509132601.py:5:·SyntaxWarning:·invalid·escape·sequence·'\p'	181	/tmp/ipykernel_101237/3509132601.py:5:·SyntaxWarning:·invalid·escape·sequence·'\p'
182	··support,·andrew.weights,·["$-\pia$",·"0",·"$\pia$"],·[-np.pi··a,·0,·np.pi··a]	182	··support,·andrew.weights,·["$-\pia$",·"0",·"$\pia$"],·[-np.pi··a,·0,·np.pi··a]
183	/tmp/ipykernel_~~65754~~/3509132601.py:5:·SyntaxWarning:·invalid·escape·sequence·'\p'	183	/tmp/ipykernel_101237/3509132601.py:5:·SyntaxWarning:·invalid·escape·sequence·'\p'
184	··support,·andrew.weights,·["$-\pia$",·"0",·"$\pia$"],·[-np.pi··a,·0,·np.pi··a]	184	··support,·andrew.weights,·["$-\pia$",·"0",·"$\pia$"],·[-np.pi··a,·0,·np.pi··a]
185	</pre></div></div>	185	</pre></div></div>
186	</div>	186	</div>
187	<div·class="nboutput·docutils·container">	187	<div·class="nboutput·docutils·container">
188	<div·class="prompt·highlight-none·notranslate"><div·class="highlight"><pre><span></span>[6]:	188	<div·class="prompt·highlight-none·notranslate"><div·class="highlight"><pre><span></span>[6]:
189	</pre></div>	189	</pre></div>
190	</div>	190	</div>


Offset 64, 19 lines modified		Offset 64, 19 lines modified
64	····support,·andrew.weights,·["$-\pia$",·"0",·"$\pia$"],·[-np.pi·*·a,·0,	64	····support,·andrew.weights,·["$-\pia$",·"0",·"$\pia$"],·[-np.pi·*·a,·0,
65	np.pi·*·a]	65	np.pi·*·a]
66	)	66	)
67	<>:5:·SyntaxWarning:·invalid·escape·sequence·'\p'	67	<>:5:·SyntaxWarning:·invalid·escape·sequence·'\p'
68	<>:5:·SyntaxWarning:·invalid·escape·sequence·'\p'	68	<>:5:·SyntaxWarning:·invalid·escape·sequence·'\p'
69	<>:5:·SyntaxWarning:·invalid·escape·sequence·'\p'	69	<>:5:·SyntaxWarning:·invalid·escape·sequence·'\p'
70	<>:5:·SyntaxWarning:·invalid·escape·sequence·'\p'	70	<>:5:·SyntaxWarning:·invalid·escape·sequence·'\p'
71	/tmp/ipykernel_~~65754~~/3509132601.py:5:·SyntaxWarning:·invalid·escape·sequence	71	/tmp/ipykernel_101237/3509132601.py:5:·SyntaxWarning:·invalid·escape·sequence
72	'\p'	72	'\p'
73	··support,·andrew.weights,·["$-\pia$",·"0",·"$\pia$"],·[-np.pi·*·a,·0,·np.pi	73	··support,·andrew.weights,·["$-\pia$",·"0",·"$\pia$"],·[-np.pi·*·a,·0,·np.pi
74	*·a]	74	*·a]
75	/tmp/ipykernel_~~65754~~/3509132601.py:5:·SyntaxWarning:·invalid·escape·sequence	75	/tmp/ipykernel_101237/3509132601.py:5:·SyntaxWarning:·invalid·escape·sequence
76	'\p'	76	'\p'
77	··support,·andrew.weights,·["$-\pia$",·"0",·"$\pia$"],·[-np.pi·*·a,·0,·np.pi	77	··support,·andrew.weights,·["$-\pia$",·"0",·"$\pia$"],·[-np.pi·*·a,·0,·np.pi
78	*·a]	78	*·a]
79	[6]:	79	[6]:
80	<Axes:·>	80	<Axes:·>
81	[../../../_images/examples_notebooks_generated_robust_models_1_9_2.png]	81	[../../../_images/examples_notebooks_generated_robust_models_1_9_2.png]
82	\x8\x8\x8\x8\x8·H\x8Ha\x8am\x8mp\x8pe\x8el\x8l?\x8’s\x8s·1\x817\x87A\x8A_\x8?\x8¶·\x8\x8\x8\x8\x8	82	\x8\x8\x8\x8\x8·H\x8Ha\x8am\x8mp\x8pe\x8el\x8l?\x8’s\x8s·1\x817\x87A\x8A_\x8?\x8¶·\x8\x8\x8\x8\x8


Offset 16, 18 lines modified		Offset 16, 18 lines modified
16	········},	16	········},
17	········{	17	········{
18	············"cell_type":·"code",	18	············"cell_type":·"code",
19	············"execution_count":·1,	19	············"execution_count":·1,
20	············"metadata":·{	20	············"metadata":·{
21	················"collapsed":·false,	21	················"collapsed":·false,
22	················"execution":·{	22	················"execution":·{
23	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2025-04-15T06:03:52.~~398488~~Z",	23	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2026-05-18T13:29:33.054312Z",
24	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2025-04-15T06:03:52.~~398073~~Z",	24	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2026-05-18T13:29:33.053926Z",
25	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2025-04-15T06:03:54.114046Z",	25	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2026-05-18T13:29:34.934463Z",
26	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2025-04-15T06:03:54.11~~3111~~Z"	26	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2026-05-18T13:29:34.918462Z"
27	················},	27	················},
28	················"jupyter":·{	28	················"jupyter":·{
29	····················"outputs_hidden":·false	29	····················"outputs_hidden":·false
30	················}	30	················}
31	············},	31	············},
32	············"outputs":·[],	32	············"outputs":·[],
33	············"source":·[	33	············"source":·[
Offset 36, 18 lines modified		Offset 36, 18 lines modified
36	········},	36	········},
37	········{	37	········{
38	············"cell_type":·"code",	38	············"cell_type":·"code",
39	············"execution_count":·2,	39	············"execution_count":·2,
40	············"metadata":·{	40	············"metadata":·{
41	················"collapsed":·false,	41	················"collapsed":·false,
42	················"execution":·{	42	················"execution":·{
43	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2025-04-15T06:03:54.~~119~~740Z",	43	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2026-05-18T13:29:34.947753Z",
44	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2025-04-15T06:03:54.~~119~~266Z",	44	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2026-05-18T13:29:34.947233Z",
45	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2025-04-15T06:03:56.40~~4359~~Z",	45	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2026-05-18T13:29:39.303676Z",
46	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2025-04-15T06:03:56.40~~3519~~Z"	46	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2026-05-18T13:29:39.302462Z"
47	················},	47	················},
48	················"jupyter":·{	48	················"jupyter":·{
49	····················"outputs_hidden":·false	49	····················"outputs_hidden":·false
50	················}	50	················}
51	············},	51	············},
52	············"outputs":·[],	52	············"outputs":·[],
53	············"source":·[	53	············"source":·[
Offset 61, 18 lines modified		Offset 61, 18 lines modified
61	········},	61	········},
62	········{	62	········{
63	············"cell_type":·"code",	63	············"cell_type":·"code",
64	············"execution_count":·3,	64	············"execution_count":·3,
65	············"metadata":·{	65	············"metadata":·{
66	················"collapsed":·false,	66	················"collapsed":·false,
67	················"execution":·{	67	················"execution":·{
68	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2025-04-15T06:03:56.41~~0233~~Z",	68	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2026-05-18T13:29:39.311821Z",
69	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2025-04-15T06:03:56.~~409699~~Z",	69	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2026-05-18T13:29:39.311208Z",
70	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2025-04-15T06:03:56.~~413853~~Z",	70	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2026-05-18T13:29:39.324527Z",
71	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2025-04-15T06:03:56.413~~024~~Z"	71	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2026-05-18T13:29:39.323561Z"
72	················},	72	················},
73	················"jupyter":·{	73	················"jupyter":·{
74	····················"outputs_hidden":·false	74	····················"outputs_hidden":·false
75	················}	75	················}
76	············},	76	············},
77	············"outputs":·[],	77	············"outputs":·[],
78	············"source":·[	78	············"source":·[
Offset 88, 18 lines modified		Offset 88, 18 lines modified
88	········},	88	········},
89	········{	89	········{
90	············"cell_type":·"code",	90	············"cell_type":·"code",
91	············"execution_count":·4,	91	············"execution_count":·4,
92	············"metadata":·{	92	············"metadata":·{
93	················"collapsed":·false,	93	················"collapsed":·false,
94	················"execution":·{	94	················"execution":·{
95	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2025-04-15T06:03:56.~~416968~~Z",	95	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2026-05-18T13:29:39.328356Z",
96	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2025-04-15T06:03:56.~~416624~~Z",	96	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2026-05-18T13:29:39.328001Z",
97	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2025-04-15T06:03:56.~~421264~~Z",	97	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2026-05-18T13:29:39.339470Z",
98	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2025-04-15T06:03:56.~~420~~460Z"	98	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2026-05-18T13:29:39.338426Z"
99	················},	99	················},
100	················"jupyter":·{	100	················"jupyter":·{
101	····················"outputs_hidden":·false	101	····················"outputs_hidden":·false
102	················}	102	················}
103	············},	103	············},
104	············"outputs":·[	104	············"outputs":·[
105	················{	105	················{
Offset 125, 18 lines modified		Offset 125, 18 lines modified
125	········},	125	········},
126	········{	126	········{
127	············"cell_type":·"code",	127	············"cell_type":·"code",
128	············"execution_count":·5,	128	············"execution_count":·5,
129	············"metadata":·{	129	············"metadata":·{
130	················"collapsed":·false,	130	················"collapsed":·false,
131	················"execution":·{	131	················"execution":·{
132	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2025-04-15T06:03:56.~~49068~~2Z",	132	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2026-05-18T13:29:39.351812Z",
133	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2025-04-15T06:03:56.~~490292~~Z",	133	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2026-05-18T13:29:39.351325Z",
134	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2025-04-15T06:03:56.~~502304~~Z",	134	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2026-05-18T13:29:39.367566Z",
135	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2025-04-15T06:03:56.~~5006~~35Z"	135	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2026-05-18T13:29:39.366438Z"
136	················},	136	················},
137	················"jupyter":·{	137	················"jupyter":·{
138	····················"outputs_hidden":·false	138	····················"outputs_hidden":·false
139	················}	139	················}
140	············},	140	············},
141	············"outputs":·[],	141	············"outputs":·[],
142	············"source":·[	142	············"source":·[
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145	········},	145	········},
146	········{	146	········{
147	············"cell_type":·"code",	147	············"cell_type":·"code",
148	············"execution_count":·6,	148	············"execution_count":·6,
149	············"metadata":·{	149	············"metadata":·{
150	················"collapsed":·false,	150	················"collapsed":·false,
151	················"execution":·{	151	················"execution":·{
152	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2025-04-15T06:03:56.507597Z",	152	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2026-05-18T13:29:39.375613Z",
153	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2025-04-15T06:03:56.~~506341~~Z",	153	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2026-05-18T13:29:39.375202Z",
154	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2025-04-15T06:03:56.~~522807~~Z",	154	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2026-05-18T13:29:39.403621Z",
155	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2025-04-15T06:03:56.~~521~~416Z"	155	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2026-05-18T13:29:39.402491Z"
156	················},	156	················},
157	················"jupyter":·{	157	················"jupyter":·{
158	····················"outputs_hidden":·false	158	····················"outputs_hidden":·false
159	················}	159	················}
160	············},	160	············},
161	············"outputs":·[],	161	············"outputs":·[],
162	············"source":·[	162	············"source":·[
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166	········},	166	········},
167	········{	167	········{
168	············"cell_type":·"code",	168	············"cell_type":·"code",
169	············"execution_count":·7,	169	············"execution_count":·7,
170	············"metadata":·{	170	············"metadata":·{
171	················"collapsed":·false,	171	················"collapsed":·false,
172	················"execution":·{	172	················"execution":·{
173	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2025-04-15T06:03:56.~~527432~~Z",	173	····················"iopub.execute_input":·"2026-05-18T13:29:39.411563Z",
174	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2025-04-15T06:03:56.~~526864~~Z",	174	····················"iopub.status.busy":·"2026-05-18T13:29:39.411172Z",
175	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2025-04-15T06:03:57.~~638752~~Z",	175	····················"iopub.status.idle":·"2026-05-18T13:29:40.421124Z",
176	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2025-04-15T06:03:57.~~637531~~Z"	176	····················"shell.execute_reply":·"2026-05-18T13:29:40.420194Z"
177	················},	177	················},
178	················"jupyter":·{	178	················"jupyter":·{
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Offset 76, 15 lines modified		Offset 76, 15 lines modified
76	</div>	76	</div>
77	</div>	77	</div>
78	<div·class="nboutput·nblast·docutils·container">	78	<div·class="nboutput·nblast·docutils·container">
79	<div·class="prompt·empty·docutils·container">	79	<div·class="prompt·empty·docutils·container">
80	</div>	80	</div>
81	<div·class="output_area·stderr·docutils·container">	81	<div·class="output_area·stderr·docutils·container">
82	<div·class="highlight"><pre>	82	<div·class="highlight"><pre>
83	/tmp/ipykernel_~~54472~~/2378637424.py:6:·FutureWarning:·'Q'·is·deprecated·and·will·be·removed·in·a·future·version,·please·use·'QE'·instead.	83	/tmp/ipykernel_106209/2378637424.py:6:·FutureWarning:·'Q'·is·deprecated·and·will·be·removed·in·a·future·version,·please·use·'QE'·instead.
84	··dta.index·=·pd.date_range(start='1959Q1',·end='2009Q4',·freq='Q')	84	··dta.index·=·pd.date_range(start='1959Q1',·end='2009Q4',·freq='Q')
85	</pre></div></div>	85	</pre></div></div>
86	</div>	86	</div>
87	<section·id="Introduction">	87	<section·id="Introduction">
88	<h2>Introduction<a·class="headerlink"·href="#Introduction"·title="Link·to·this·heading">¶</a></h2>	88	<h2>Introduction<a·class="headerlink"·href="#Introduction"·title="Link·to·this·heading">¶</a></h2>
89	<p>(much·of·this·is·based·on·Harvey·(1989);·see·especially·section·3.4)</p>	89	<p>(much·of·this·is·based·on·Harvey·(1989);·see·especially·section·3.4)</p>
90	<p>State·space·models·can·generically·be·written·as·follows·(here·we·focus·on·time-invariant·state·space·models,·but·similar·results·apply·also·to·time-varying·models):</p>	90	<p>State·space·models·can·generically·be·written·as·follows·(here·we·focus·on·time-invariant·state·space·models,·but·similar·results·apply·also·to·time-varying·models):</p>
Offset 331, 19 lines modified		Offset 331, 19 lines modified
331	</pre></div></div>	331	</pre></div></div>
332	</div>	332	</div>
333	<div·class="nboutput·nblast·docutils·container">	333	<div·class="nboutput·nblast·docutils·container">
334	<div·class="prompt·empty·docutils·container">	334	<div·class="prompt·empty·docutils·container">
335	</div>	335	</div>
336	<div·class="output_area·stderr·docutils·container">	336	<div·class="output_area·stderr·docutils·container">
337	<div·class="highlight"><pre>	337	<div·class="highlight"><pre>
338	/tmp/ipykernel_~~54472~~/976557282.py:2:·FutureWarning:·Series.__getitem__·treating·keys·as·positions·is·deprecated.·In·a·future·version,·integer·keys·will·always·be·treated·as·labels·(consistent·with·DataFrame·behavior).·To·access·a·value·by·position,·use·`ser.iloc[pos]`	338	/tmp/ipykernel_106209/976557282.py:2:·FutureWarning:·Series.__getitem__·treating·keys·as·positions·is·deprecated.·In·a·future·version,·integer·keys·will·always·be·treated·as·labels·(consistent·with·DataFrame·behavior).·To·access·a·value·by·position,·use·`ser.iloc[pos]`
339	··print('var.level·····=·%.5f'·%·res.params[0])	339	··print('var.level·····=·%.5f'·%·res.params[0])
340	/tmp/ipykernel_~~54472~~/976557282.py:3:·FutureWarning:·Series.__getitem__·treating·keys·as·positions·is·deprecated.·In·a·future·version,·integer·keys·will·always·be·treated·as·labels·(consistent·with·DataFrame·behavior).·To·access·a·value·by·position,·use·`ser.iloc[pos]`	340	/tmp/ipykernel_106209/976557282.py:3:·FutureWarning:·Series.__getitem__·treating·keys·as·positions·is·deprecated.·In·a·future·version,·integer·keys·will·always·be·treated·as·labels·(consistent·with·DataFrame·behavior).·To·access·a·value·by·position,·use·`ser.iloc[pos]`
341	··print('var.irregular·=·%.5f'·%·res.params[1])	341	··print('var.irregular·=·%.5f'·%·res.params[1])
342	/tmp/ipykernel_~~54472~~/976557282.py:7:·FutureWarning:·Series.__getitem__·treating·keys·as·positions·is·deprecated.·In·a·future·version,·integer·keys·will·always·be·treated·as·labels·(consistent·with·DataFrame·behavior).·To·access·a·value·by·position,·use·`ser.iloc[pos]`	342	/tmp/ipykernel_106209/976557282.py:7:·FutureWarning:·Series.__getitem__·treating·keys·as·positions·is·deprecated.·In·a·future·version,·integer·keys·will·always·be·treated·as·labels·(consistent·with·DataFrame·behavior).·To·access·a·value·by·position,·use·`ser.iloc[pos]`
343	··print('h··scale·····=·%.5f'·%·(res_conc.params[0]··res_conc.scale))	343	··print('h··scale·····=·%.5f'·%·(res_conc.params[0]··res_conc.scale))
344	</pre></div></div>	344	</pre></div></div>
345	</div>	345	</div>
346	</section>	346	</section>
347	</section>	347	</section>
348	<section·id="Example:-SARIMAX">	348	<section·id="Example:-SARIMAX">
349	<h2>Example:·SARIMAX<a·class="headerlink"·href="#Example:-SARIMAX"·title="Link·to·this·heading">¶</a></h2>	349	<h2>Example:·SARIMAX<a·class="headerlink"·href="#Example:-SARIMAX"·title="Link·to·this·heading">¶</a></h2>


Offset 12, 16 lines modified		Offset 12, 16 lines modified
12	[1]:	12	[1]:
13	import·numpy·as·np	13	import·numpy·as·np
14	import·pandas·as·pd	14	import·pandas·as·pd
15	import·statsmodels.api·as·sm	15	import·statsmodels.api·as·sm

16	dta·=·sm.datasets.macrodata.load_pandas().data	16	dta·=·sm.datasets.macrodata.load_pandas().data
17	dta.index·=·pd.date_range(start='1959Q1',·end='2009Q4',·freq='Q')	17	dta.index·=·pd.date_range(start='1959Q1',·end='2009Q4',·freq='Q')
18	/tmp/ipykernel_~~54472~~/2378637424.py:6:·FutureWarning:·'Q'·is·deprecated·and~~·will~~	18	/tmp/ipykernel_106209/2378637424.py:6:·FutureWarning:·'Q'·is·deprecated·and
19	be·removed·in·a·future·version,·please·use·'QE'·instead.	19	will·be·removed·in·a·future·version,·please·use·'QE'·instead.
20	··dta.index·=·pd.date_range(start='1959Q1',·end='2009Q4',·freq='Q')	20	··dta.index·=·pd.date_range(start='1959Q1',·end='2009Q4',·freq='Q')
21	\x8\x8\x8\x8\x8·I\x8In\x8nt\x8tr\x8ro\x8od\x8du\x8uc\x8ct\x8ti\x8io\x8on\x8n_\x8?\x8¶·\x8\x8\x8\x8\x8	21	\x8\x8\x8\x8\x8·I\x8In\x8nt\x8tr\x8ro\x8od\x8du\x8uc\x8ct\x8ti\x8io\x8on\x8n_\x8?\x8¶·\x8\x8\x8\x8\x8
22	(much·of·this·is·based·on·Harvey·(1989);·see·especially·section·3.4)	22	(much·of·this·is·based·on·Harvey·(1989);·see·especially·section·3.4)
23	State·space·models·can·generically·be·written·as·follows·(here·we·focus·on	23	State·space·models·can·generically·be·written·as·follows·(here·we·focus·on
24	time-invariant·state·space·models,·but·similar·results·apply·also·to·time-	24	time-invariant·state·space·models,·but·similar·results·apply·also·to·time-
25	varying·models):	25	varying·models):
26	\[\begin{split}\begin{align}·y_t·&·=·Z·\alpha_t·+·\varepsilon_t,·\quad	26	\[\begin{split}\begin{align}·y_t·&·=·Z·\alpha_t·+·\varepsilon_t,·\quad
Offset 246, 28 lines modified		Offset 246, 28 lines modified
246	Original·model	246	Original·model
247	var.level·····=·0.74469	247	var.level·····=·0.74469
248	var.irregular·=·3.37330	248	var.irregular·=·3.37330

249	Concentrated·model	249	Concentrated·model
250	scale·········=·0.74472	250	scale·········=·0.74472
251	h·*·scale·····=·3.37338	251	h·*·scale·····=·3.37338
252	/tmp/ipykernel_~~54472~~/976557282.py:2:·FutureWarning:·Series.__getitem__~~·treating~~	252	/tmp/ipykernel_106209/976557282.py:2:·FutureWarning:·Series.__getitem__
253	keys·as·positions·is·deprecated.·In·a·future·version,·integer·ke~~ys·will·alwa~~ys	253	treating·keys·as·positions·is·deprecated.·In·a·future·version,·integer·keys
254	be·treated·as·labels·(consistent·with·DataFrame·behavior).·To~~·access·a·value·by~~	254	will·always·be·treated·as·labels·(consistent·with·DataFrame·behavior).·To
255	position,·use·`ser.iloc[pos]`	255	access·a·value·by·position,·use·`ser.iloc[pos]`
256	··print('var.level·····=·%.5f'·%·res.params[0])	256	··print('var.level·····=·%.5f'·%·res.params[0])
257	/tmp/ipykernel_~~54472~~/976557282.py:3:·FutureWarning:·Series.__getitem__~~·treating~~	257	/tmp/ipykernel_106209/976557282.py:3:·FutureWarning:·Series.__getitem__
258	keys·as·positions·is·deprecated.·In·a·future·version,·integer·ke~~ys·will·alwa~~ys	258	treating·keys·as·positions·is·deprecated.·In·a·future·version,·integer·keys
259	be·treated·as·labels·(consistent·with·DataFrame·behavior).·To~~·access·a·value·by~~	259	will·always·be·treated·as·labels·(consistent·with·DataFrame·behavior).·To
260	position,·use·`ser.iloc[pos]`	260	access·a·value·by·position,·use·`ser.iloc[pos]`
261	··print('var.irregular·=·%.5f'·%·res.params[1])	261	··print('var.irregular·=·%.5f'·%·res.params[1])
262	/tmp/ipykernel_~~54472~~/976557282.py:7:·FutureWarning:·Series.__getitem__~~·treating~~	262	/tmp/ipykernel_106209/976557282.py:7:·FutureWarning:·Series.__getitem__
263	keys·as·positions·is·deprecated.·In·a·future·version,·integer·ke~~ys·will·alwa~~ys	263	treating·keys·as·positions·is·deprecated.·In·a·future·version,·integer·keys
264	be·treated·as·labels·(consistent·with·DataFrame·behavior).·To~~·access·a·value·by~~	264	will·always·be·treated·as·labels·(consistent·with·DataFrame·behavior).·To
265	position,·use·`ser.iloc[pos]`	265	access·a·value·by·position,·use·`ser.iloc[pos]`
266	··print('h··scale·····=·%.5f'·%·(res_conc.params[0]··res_conc.scale))	266	··print('h··scale·····=·%.5f'·%·(res_conc.params[0]··res_conc.scale))
267	\x8\x8\x8\x8\x8·E\x8Ex\x8xa\x8am\x8mp\x8pl\x8le\x8e:\x8:·S\x8SA\x8AR\x8RI\x8IM\x8MA\x8AX\x8X_\x8?\x8¶·\x8\x8\x8\x8\x8	267	\x8\x8\x8\x8\x8·E\x8Ex\x8xa\x8am\x8mp\x8pl\x8le\x8e:\x8:·S\x8SA\x8AR\x8RI\x8IM\x8MA\x8AX\x8X_\x8?\x8¶·\x8\x8\x8\x8\x8
268	By·default·in·SARIMAX·models,·the·variance·term·is·chosen·by·numerically	268	By·default·in·SARIMAX·models,·the·variance·term·is·chosen·by·numerically
269	maximizing·the·likelihood·function,·but·an·option·has·been·added·to·allow	269	maximizing·the·likelihood·function,·but·an·option·has·been·added·to·allow
270	concentrating·the·scale·out.	270	concentrating·the·scale·out.
271	[9]:	271	[9]:
272	#·Typical·approach	272	#·Typical·approach